雙語閱讀｜博通高價收購高通，打響無情晶片之戰

AT FIRST glance the chip business and the Serengeti appear to have little in common. But both are arenas where large predators hungrily stalk big game. On November 6th Broadcom announced its intention to buy its rival, Qualcomm, for around $130bn, including debt. If successful, it would be the largest deal in the history of the technology business (see table).

乍一看，晶片業務和塞倫蓋蒂（Serengeti）似乎沒有什麼共同之處，但它們都是大型食肉動物獵食的競技場。

11月6日，博通（Broadcom）宣布將斥資約1300億美元收購其競爭對手高通(Qualcomm)，其中包括債務。

如果收購成功，這將誕生科技行業史上最大的一筆併購交易(見表)。

And like the African plains, the semiconductor industry supports a complex food chain with different species of chipmakers hunting each other. Qualcomm is already trying to swallow another chip firm, NXP, from the Netherlands, in a deal worth $47bn. In 2015 NXP, which makes chips for automobiles and other markets, itself completed a merger with Freescale, another large chip company. Meanwhile, Broadcom has become the world’s fifth-largest semiconductor firm by snapping up rivals. It has pulled off five big acquisitions since 2013 and is seeking approval for its $5.9bn bid for Brocade, yet another semiconductor company. If it successfully ingests Qualcomm, the combined group would become the world’s third-largest chipmaker, behind only Intel and Samsung Electronics, and a dominant supplier of many components in smartphones.

就像在非洲平原一樣，半導體產業支撐著一條複雜的食物鏈，不同的類型的晶片製造商在相互廝殺。

高通早想以470億美元的價格吞下另一家荷蘭晶片公司恩智浦（NXP）。

2015年，為汽車和其他一些市場製造晶片的恩智浦自身完成對大型晶片公司飛思卡爾（Freescale）的收購。

同時，博通通過快速收購競爭對手的方式成為全球第五大半導體公司。

2013以來，它完成了五次大型收購，並擬以59億美元收購半導體公司博科（Brocade）。

如果成功併購高通，合併後的企業將躍升為僅次於英特爾（Intel）和三星電子（Samsung Electronics）的全球第三大晶片製造商，同時還將成為智慧型手機零部件的主要供應商。

Consolidation in semiconductors is only speeding up, both in memory chips and, as with this proposed transaction, in microprocessors. Between 2006 and 2016 deals worth a total of $556bn were struck as chipmakers sought to expand in a rapidly maturing industry. Previous sources of brisk growth, such as the spread of personal computers, tablets and smartphones, have dried up. Global sales of chips reached $344bn in 2016, but in the past five years they have flattened.

半導體行業的整合一直在不斷加速，無論是在存儲晶片上還是此次提到的微處理器交易。

從2006年至2016年期間，晶片製造商尋求在一個迅速成熟的行業擴張，總價值達5560億美元。

隨著如個人電腦、平板電腦和智慧型手機的普及，此前的快速增長來源枯竭了。

在2016年，全球晶片銷售額達到3440億美元；在過去5年里，銷售額增長趨於平緩。

It is against this backdrop that Hock Tan, chief executive of Broadcom, continues to hunt for new targets. His firm switched its name to Broadcom after the company he once ran, Avago, acquired it in 2015 for $37bn. This month he stood next to President Donald Trump as he announced that he would move Broadcom’s legal headquarters from Singapore to America, a move surely designed to encourage American regulators』 approval both for his acquisition of Brocade and the subsequent bid for Qualcomm.

正是在這樣的背景下，博通的掌舵人譚浩克（Hock Tan）繼續尋找新的目標。

2015年，他曾掌管的安華高科技（Avago）以370億美元併購博通，並更名為博通。

本月，他站在唐納德·川普總統旁邊，宣布將把博通總部從新加坡遷回美國，此舉無疑是為了讓美國監管機構准許他收購博科以及隨後對高通的收購計劃。

Mr Tan and his firm keep a low profile and are barely known outside the semiconductor industry, but his techniques have a following. In particular, he has connections to America’s private-equity industry. Silver Lake, a prominent buy-out firm that owns a stake in Broadcom, is providing $5bn in financing for the proposed takeover, alongside banks.

譚洗克和他的公司皆行事低調，在半導體行業外鮮為人知，但他的管理技能不乏追隨者。

尤其是他與美國的私募股權行業的關係密切。

持有博通股份的著名收購機構銀湖資本（Silver Lake）將聯合銀行為這筆併購提供50億美元資金支持。

Most semiconductor firms are run by electrical engineers who see engineering as the solution to their problems, says Mr Tan, who was born in Malaysia, studied engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and then business at Harvard Business School. He tackles his industry more like a private-equity boss, finding firms that are bloated and cutting costs. 「He ran through Broadcom with a machete,」 says Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research. According to Linley Gwennap of the Linley Group, a consultancy focused on semiconductors, Mr Tan eliminated an entire layer of management at Broadcom and now has around 20 business units reporting directly to him.

譚浩克表示，大多數半導體企業是由電氣工程師管理的，他們把軟體工程視為解決問題的方法。

譚浩克出生於馬來西亞，在麻省理工學院學習軟體工程，隨後在哈佛商學院學習商業管理。

他更多地是以一個私募股權機構的老闆來對待半導體行業，尋找臃腫且要削減成本的企業。

伯恩斯坦（Bernstein Research）的分析師斯特西·拉斯岡(Stacy Rasgon)說：「他大刀闊斧管理著博通。

」 Linley Group的半導體行業分析師林利·戈文耐普（Linley Gwennap）表示，譚浩克精減了博通的整個管理層，現在大約有20個業務部門直接向他報告。

Scale helps semiconductor companies greatly because the business is so capital-intensive. Broadcom also sees benefits from Qualcomm’s investments in areas such as 5G technology, where it falls short itself. If Qualcomm’s purchase of NXP is approved, Mr Tan would also gain exposure to the automotive market and to self-driving cars, another area of promise for chipmakers.

因為半導體行業屬於資金密集型行業，發展得力於規模化。

博通也看到高通在5G技術等領域投資的發展前景，而博通在這個方面比較薄弱。

如果高通收購恩智浦獲得批准，譚浩克還將涉足汽車和自動駕駛汽車市場——這些是製造商大有作為的領域。

Qualcomm has recently suffered legal wounds, which will have helped draw Broadcom in for a kill. It makes the majority of its revenue from patent licensing, but in January America’s consumer watchdog, the Federal Trade Commission, sued it, alleging it was abusing its monopoly position in order to extract high licensing fees for baseband chips, used in smartphones. Regulatory bodies in China, South Korea and Taiwan have levied hefty fines on Qualcomm for anticompetitive behaviour. One of the semiconductor industry’s most powerful customers, Apple, has also sued Qualcomm over its licensing terms, and iPhone manufacturers have started withholding royalty payments, depriving Qualcomm of billions in sales as the dispute rages on. There is no end in sight.

高通最近陷入了法律糾紛，無疑助力了博通的一舉將它拿下。

高通的大部分收入來自專利許可，但在一月，美國消費者監督機構——聯邦貿易委員會（Federal Trade Commission）對其提出訴訟，聲稱它濫用自己的壟斷地位，以便收取用於智慧型手機的基帶晶片的高額許可費。

中國、韓國和台灣的監管機構都對高通的反競爭行為開出了巨額罰單。

作為半導體行業最具影響力的客戶之一，蘋果公司（Apple）也起訴高通的許可條款，iPhone製造商已經開始拒絕支付版稅。

這使得高通在爭議不斷的時候失去了數十億美元的銷售收入。

這樣的境況不知何時能結束。

Mr Tan has suggested that new ownership could lead to a more amicable relationship between Qualcomm and customers such as Apple, although there is little evidence for that view. In a few areas, including connectivity chips that enable Wi-Fi and radio-frequency chips, Broadcom and Qualcomm compete; having a giant firm with more market power is not likely to please chip buyers. If they combined, with no divestments, Qualcomm and Broadcom would control between 50%-60% of the market for Wi-Fi chips and 27% of radio-frequency chips for mobile devices. According to Mr Gwennap, Broadcom has raised prices in some markets where it has a dominant share, such as Ethernet switches for data centres, and customers are unhappy.

譚浩克表示，新東家能間高通和蘋果等客戶之間建立更友好的關係，不過現在沒有任何證據能證明這個觀點。

在一些領域，包括支持wi-fi和射頻晶片的連通性晶片，博通和高通之間存在競爭；對擁有市場更多的大公司不太可能取悅晶片購買者。

如果兩家合併且沒有撤資，高通和博通將控制50% - 60%的wifi晶片市場的和27%用於移動設備的射頻晶片市場。

按照戈文奈普的說法，博通在一些占主導地位的市場提價，如數據中心乙太網交換機，惹得客戶很不滿意。

Chip, chip, chip, chip hooray

晶片，晶片，晶片，晶片萬歲

Qualcomm’s board is said to be preparing to reject the offer, which it considers to be too low. Broadcom could raise its price to see through a deal, or pursue a hostile bid. But even if Broadcom wins the support of Qualcomm’s bosses and shareholders, there are large risks, says Geoff Blaber of CCS Insight, a research group. With Qualcomm’s pending purchase of NXP and Broadcom’s of Brocade, what looks at first glance like a merger between two giants is actually a four-sided deal. It would be difficult to unite so many different divisions and business units all at once.

據說高通董事會認為報價太低，準備拒絕這一提議。

博通可能提高價格以達成交易，或開展惡意收購。

英國的研究團體CCS Insight的傑夫·布雷伯（Geoff Blaber）表示，即使博通贏得高通老闆和股東的支持，依然存在很大的風險。

高通即將收購恩智浦，博通也將收購博科，乍看上去這是兩大巨頭的合併，但實際是一場四方交易。

短期內統一這麼多不同的部門和業務單位並非易事。

A second risk is regulatory. The European Commission’s ongoing investigation of Qualcomm’s proposed acquisition of NXP is suggestive of the close scrutiny that another mega-deal in chips could receive in Europe, says Thomas Vinje, head of antitrust at Clifford Chance, a law firm, in Brussels. China’s antitrust regulators could also prove difficult. They may want to protect their own, home-grown chipmakers.

第二個風險是監管。

布魯塞爾的高偉紳律師事務所(Clifford Chance)的反壟斷主管托馬斯•維耶(Thomas Vinje)表示，歐盟委員會正在對高通擬議收購恩智浦的交易進行調查，這暗示著另一起超大規模晶片交易可能會在歐洲接受嚴密的審查。

中國的反壟斷監管機構應對起來同樣不容易，因為他們會想保護自己本土晶片製造商。

Some have interpreted the bid as an attempt by Broadcom to enter future fast-growing areas, such as chips for connected devices, collectively called the 「internet of things」, and artificial intelligence, where Nvidia, another chipmaker, dominates. But the combined entity may actually be too focused on maturing semiconductor markets; by swallowing Qualcomm, Broadcom would be doubling down on smartphones rather than diversifying away from them.

一些人認為博通的收購意在進入未來快速增長的領域，比如連接那些統稱為「物聯網」設備的晶片，以及被另一家晶片製造商英偉達（NVIDIA）主導的人工智慧晶片。

合併後的實體實際上可能過於專注於成熟的半導體市場；吞併高通，博通將在智慧型手機領域銷量翻番，而不是開拓出其他各類市場。

Yet Mr Tan sees this as a good thing. 「Focus is the key to success as the industry consolidates,」 he says. 「We try to progress innovation in areas we are already good at.」 Perhaps he thinks that he can buy into new categories in the chip business when he is ready to roll them into his giant company. Skilled hunters learn never to reveal where they might be planning to attack next.

然而，譚浩克認為這是一件好事。

「在行業整合的過程中，專注是成功的關鍵。

」他說，「我們努力在擅長的領域進步創新。

「也許他認為，當他做好準備把晶片業務發展成巨型公司時，他就能買下晶片業務里的新門類市場。

高超的獵人永遠都不會透露他們下一個計劃攻擊目標。

編譯：鄧思琦

審校：程馨瑩

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人

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