China–United States trade war - Wikipedia

The Trump administration stated that these practices may contribute to the U.S.–China trade deficit, and that the Chinese government requires transfer of ... China–UnitedStatestradewar FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch 2018–presenteconomicconflict Thisarticlehasmultipleissues.Pleasehelpimproveitordiscusstheseissuesonthetalkpage.(Learnhowandwhentoremovethesetemplatemessages) Theleadsectionofthisarticlemayneedtoberewritten.Thereasongivenis:Theleadisasummary,notwrittenasanindependentessay.Leadsshouldnothaveanynewcitations,yetoverhalfofthe23citations,includingmanyinexcess,areunique.UsetheleadlayoutguidetoensurethesectionfollowsWikipedia'snormsandisinclusiveofallessentialdetails.(June2021)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Theexamplesandperspectiveinthisarticlemaynotrepresentaworldwideviewofthesubject.Youmayimprovethisarticle,discusstheissueonthetalkpage,orcreateanewarticle,asappropriate.(August2020)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) ThisarticlemaybeexpandedwithtexttranslatedfromthecorrespondingarticleinChinese.(November2019)Click[show]forimportanttranslationinstructions. 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(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) China–UnitedStatestradewarVicePremierLiu HeandPresidentDonaldTrumpsignthePhaseOneTradeDealinJanuary2020SimplifiedChinese中美贸易战Traditional Chinese中美貿易戰TranscriptionsStandardMandarinHanyuPinyinZhōngměiMàoyìzhànChina–UnitedStatestradedisputeSimplifiedChinese中美贸易争端Traditional Chinese中美貿易爭端TranscriptionsStandardMandarinHanyuPinyinZhōngměiMàoyìzhēngduān TheChina–UnitedStatestradewar(Chinese:中美贸易战;pinyin:ZhōngměiMàoyìzhàn)isanongoingeconomicconflictbetweenthePeople'sRepublicofChinaandtheUnitedStates.InJanuary2018,U.S.PresidentDonaldTrumpbegansettingtariffsandothertradebarriersonChinawiththegoalofforcingittomakechangestowhattheU.S.saysare"unfairtradepractices"andintellectualpropertytheft.[1]TheTrumpadministrationstatedthatthesepracticesmaycontributetotheU.S.–Chinatradedeficit,andthattheChinesegovernmentrequirestransferofAmericantechnologytoChina.[2]InresponsetoUStrademeasures,theChinesegovernmentaccusedtheTrumpadministrationofengaginginnationalistprotectionismandtookretaliatoryaction.[3][4]Afterthetradewarescalatedthrough2019,inJanuary2020thetwosidesreachedatensephaseoneagreement;itexpiredinDecember2021withChinafailingbyawidemargintopurchaseAmericangoodsandservicesasagreed.[5]BytheendoftheTrumppresidency,thetradewarwaswidelycharacterizedasafailure.[6] Sincethe1980s,TrumphadadvocatedtariffstoeliminatetheU.S.tradedeficitandpromotedomesticmanufacturing,sayingthecountrywasbeing"rippedoff"byitstradingpartners;imposingtariffsbecameamajorplankofhispresidentialcampaign.[7]MosteconomistsdonotbelievetradedeficitsposeasignificantproblemfortheAmericaneconomy.[8]NearlyalleconomistswhorespondedtosurveysconductedbytheAssociatedPressandReuterssaidTrump'stariffswoulddomoreharmthangoodtotheAmericaneconomy,[9][10]andsomeeconomistsadvocatedalternatemeanstoaddresstradedeficitswithChina.[8][11][12][13][14] Thetradewarnegativelyimpactedtheeconomiesofbothcountries.[15][16][17]IntheUnitedStates,ithasledtohighercostsformanufacturers,higherpricesforconsumersandfinancialdifficultiesforfarmers.InChina,thetradewarcontributedtoaslowdownintherateofeconomicandindustrialoutputgrowth,whichhadalreadybeendeclining.ManyAmericancompanieshaveshiftedsupplychainstoelsewhereinAsia,bringingfearsthatthetradewarwouldleadtoaUS-Chinaeconomic'decoupling'.[18]Thetradewarhasalsocausedeconomicdamageinothercountries,thoughsomebenefitedfromincreasedmanufacturingasproductionwasshiftedtothem.Italsoledtostockmarketinstability.Governmentsaroundtheworldhavetakenstepstoaddresssomeofthedamagecausedbytheeconomicconflict.[19][20][21][22] WhiletherehasbeenbroadsupportfortheTrumpadministration'sobjectiveofmakingChinachangeitstradepolicies,theuseoftariffsandthetradewar'snegativeeconomicimpacthavebeenwidelycriticized.AmongAmericanindustries,U.S.businessesandagriculturalindustrieshaveopposedthetradewar,thoughmostfarmerscontinuedtosupportTrump,whoprovidedthemwithsubstantialfinancialsupport.[23]AstheBidenadministrationbeganinJanuary2021,BidenwasevaluatingthetariffsandpursuingamultilateralapproachwithalliestoconfrontChina.[24] Contents 1Background 1.1Traderelationship 1.2Trumpadministration'scomplaints 1.3China'sresponseandcounter-allegations 2Chronology 2.12018 2.22019 2.32020 2.42021 3Effects 3.1China 3.2UnitedStates 3.2.1Overalleconomy 3.2.2Stockmarket 3.2.3Elections 3.3Othercountries 4Reactions 4.1InChina 4.2IntheUnitedStates 4.2.1Congress 4.2.2Agricultural 4.2.3Business 4.2.4Manufacturing 4.2.5Economistsandanalysts 4.2.6Others 4.3International 5Seealso 6References 7Furtherreading 8Externallinks Background[edit] Seealso:EconomyofChina,EconomyoftheUnitedStates,IntellectualpropertyinChina,UnitedStates–ChinaRelationsActof2000,andChinaandtheWorldTradeOrganization TheUS-Chinatradebalanceovertime UStradedeficit(inbillions,goodsandservices)bycountryin2014 Traderelationship[edit] Mainarticle:China–UnitedStatesrelations USpresidentBillClintonandChineseleaderJiangZeminholdingajointpressconferenceattheWhiteHouse,October29,1997 USpresidentGeorgeW.BushandChineseleaderHuJintaoattheWhiteHouse,April20,2006 USpresidentBarackObamaandChineseleaderXiJinpingraisingatoastduringastatedinnerattheWhiteHouse,September25,2015 ThevolumeoftradeingoodsbetweentheUSandChinahasgrownrapidlysincethebeginningofChina'seconomicreformsinthelate1970s.[25]ThegrowthoftradeacceleratedafterChina'sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)in2001,[26]withtheUSandChinabecomingoneanother'smostimportanttradingpartners.[25]TheUShasconsistentlyimportedmorefromChinathanithasexportedtoChina,withthebilateralUStradedeficitingoodswithChinarisingto$375.6billionin2017.[26] TheUSgovernmenthasattimescriticizedvariousaspectsoftheUS-Chinatraderelationship,includinglargebilateraltradedeficits,andChina'srelativelyinflexibleexchangerates.[25]TheadministrationsofGeorgeW.BushandBarackObamaimposedquotasandtariffsonChinesetextilesinordertoshieldUSdomesticproducers,accusingChinaofexportingtheseproductsatdumpingprices.[25]DuringtheObamaadministration,theUSadditionallyaccusedChinaofsubsidizingaluminiumandsteelproduction,andinitiatedarangeofanti-dumpinginvestigationsagainstChina.[25]DuringthesetwoUSadministrations,US-Chinesetradecontinuedtogrow.[25]Duringthistime,China'seconomygrewtobethesecondlargestintheworld(usingnominalexchangerates),secondonlytothatoftheUS.[27]Large-scaleChineseeconomicinitiatives,suchastheBeltandRoadInitiative,theAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBankand"MadeinChina2025"alarmedsomeUSpolicymakers.[27]Morebroadly,China'seconomicgrowthhasbeenviewedbytheUSgovernmentasachallengetoAmericaneconomicandgeopoliticaldominance.[28][27] Duringhis2016presidentialcampaign,DonaldTrumppromisedtoreducetheUStradedeficitwithChina,whichheattributedtounfairtradepractices,suchasintellectualpropertytheftandlackofaccessbyUScompaniestotheChinesemarket.[26]AmericanproponentsoftariffsonChinahavearguedthattariffswillbringmanufacturingjobstotheUS;thatbilateraltariffsshouldbereciprocal;thattheUSshouldeliminateitstradedeficitwithChina;andthatChinashouldchangevariouspoliciesgoverningintellectualpropertyandinvestment.[29]Mosteconomistsareskepticaloftheabilityoftariffstoachievethefirstthreeofthesegoals.[29]AstudyestimatesthatU.S.exportstoChinaprovidesupportto1.2millionAmericanjobsandthatChinesemultinationalcompaniesdirectlyemploy197,000Americans,whileU.S.companiesinvested$105billioninChinain2019.[30]EconomistshavestudiedtheimpactoftradewithChinaandincreasinglaborproductivityonemploymentintheAmericanmanufacturingsector,withmixedresults.[29][31][32][33]MosteconomistsbelievethatAmericantradedeficitistheresultofmacroeconomicfactors,ratherthantradepolicy.[29][25][27][34]WhileincreasedtariffsonChinesegoodsareexpectedtodecreaseUSimportsfromChina,theyareexpectedtoleadtoincreasedimportsfromothercountries,leavingtheUnitedStates'overalltradedeficitlargelyunchanged-aphenomenonknownastradediversion.[29][25][27][35][34] Trumpadministration'scomplaints[edit] Seealso:Trumptariffs DonaldTrump'sfirstnotedadvocacyfortariffswaspromptedbyJapaneseeconomicsuccessinthe1980s,arguingthattheU.S.tradedeficitwasaburdenandthattariffswouldpromotedomesticmanufacturingthatwouldkeeptheUnitedStatesfrombeing"rippedoff"byitstradingpartners.[36][37]Imposingtariffswassubsequentlyamajorplankofhissuccessful2016presidentialcampaign.[38][39][40]Inearly2011,hestatedthatbecauseChinahasmanipulatedtheircurrency,"itisalmostimpossibleforourcompaniestocompetewithChinesecompanies."[41] Inthe2016USpresidentialelection,Trumpranonaprotectionisteconomicplatform.[28]Aspresident,inAugust2017,hedirectedtheOfficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentative(USTR)toinvestigateChineseeconomicpractices.[28]Theresultingreport,issuedinMarch2018,attackedmanyaspectsofChineseeconomicpolicy,focusingparticularlyonallegedtechnologytransfer,[28]whichthereportstatedcosttheUSeconomy$225billionand$600billionannually.[28][42]Followingtheissuingofthereport,TrumporderedtheimpositionoftariffsonChineseproducts,thefilingofaWTOcaseagainstChinaandrestrictionsonChineseinvestmentinhigh-techsectorsoftheUSeconomy.[28] U.S.SecretaryofCommerceWilburRossmeetswithChineseMinisterofIndustryandInformationTechnologyMiaoWei,Beijing,September2017 Insupportingtariffsaspresident,hesaidthatChinawascostingtheAmericaneconomyhundredsofbillionsofdollarsayearbecauseofunfairtradepractices.Afterimposingtariffs,hedeniedenteringintoatradewar,sayingthe"tradewarwaslostmanyyearsagobythefoolish,orincompetent,peoplewhorepresentedtheU.S."HesaidthattheU.S.hasatradedeficitof$500billionayear,withintellectualproperty(IP)theftcostinganadditional$300billion."Wecannotletthiscontinue,"hesaid.[43][44]FormerWhiteHouseCounsel,JimSchultz,saidthat"throughmultiplepresidentialadministrations—Clinton,BushandObama—theUnitedStateshasnaivelylookedtheotherwaywhileChinacheateditswaytoanunfairadvantageintheinternationaltrademarket."[45] Accordingtotheadministration,theChinesegovernment'sreformshavebeenminimalandhavenotbeenfairandreciprocal:"AfteryearsofU.S.-ChinadialoguesthatproducedminimalresultsandcommitmentsthatChinadidnothonor,theUnitedStatesistakingactiontoconfrontChinaoveritsstate-led,market-distortingforcedtechnologytransfers,intellectualpropertypractices,andcyberintrusionsofU.S.commercialnetworks."[46][47] TechnologyisconsideredthemostimportantpartoftheU.S.economy.[48]AccordingtoU.S.TradeRepresentativeRobertE.Lighthizer,Chinamaintainsapolicyof"forcedtechnologytransfer,"alongwithpracticing"statecapitalism,"includingbuyingU.S.technologycompaniesandusingcyberthefttogaintechnology.[48]Asaresult,officialsintheTrumpadministrationwere,byearly2018,takingstepstopreventChinesestate-controlledcompaniesfrombuyingAmericantechnologycompaniesandweretryingtostopAmericancompaniesfromhandingovertheirkeytechnologiestoChinaasacostofenteringtheirmarket.[48]AccordingtopoliticalanalystJoshRogin:"TherewasabeliefthatChinawoulddevelopaprivateeconomythatwouldprovecompatiblewiththeWTOsystem.Chineseleadershiphasmadeapoliticaldecisiontodotheopposite.Sonowwehavetorespond."[48] LighthizersaidthatthevalueofthetariffsimposedwasbasedonU.S.estimatesoftheactualeconomicdamagecausedbyallegedtheftofintellectualpropertyandforeign-ownershiprestrictionsthatrequireforeigncompaniestotransfertechnology.[49][50]SuchforcedJointventuresgiveChinesecompaniesillicitaccesstoAmericantechnology.[61] OverhalfofthemembersoftheAmericanChamberofCommerceinthePeople'sRepublicofChinathoughtthatleakageofintellectualpropertywasanimportantconcernwhendoingbusinessthere.[62] InAugust2017,RobertLighthizerinvestigatedChina'sallegedunfairtradepractices.[63][64][65] InitiatingsteelandaluminiumtariffactionsinMarch2018,Trumpsaid"tradewarsaregood,andeasytowin,"[66]butastheconflictcontinuedtoescalatethroughAugust2019,Trumpstated,"IneversaidChinawasgoingtobeeasy."[67][68] PeterNavarro,WhiteHouseOfficeofTradeandManufacturingPolicyDirector,explainedthatthetariffsare"purelydefensivemeasures"toreducethetradedeficit.[69]HesaysthatthecumulativetrillionsofdollarsthatAmericanstransferoverseasasaresultofyearlydeficitsarethenusedbythosecountriestobuyAmerica'sassets,asopposedtoinvestingthatmoneyintheU.S."Ifwedoaswe'redoing...thosetrillionsofdollarsareinthehandsofforeignersthattheycanthenusetobuyupAmerica."[70] China'sresponseandcounter-allegations[edit] TheChinesegovernmentarguesthattheUSgovernment'srealgoalistostifleChina'sgrowth,andthatthetradewarhashadanegativeeffectontheworld.[26][71]TheChinesegovernmenthasblamedtheAmericangovernmentforstartingtheconflictandsaidthatUSactionsweremakingnegotiationsdifficult.[72][71]ZhangXiangchen,China'sambassadortotheWorldTradeOrganization,saidtheU.S.TradeRepresentativewasoperatingwitha"presumptionofguilt",makingclaimswithoutevidenceandbasedonspeculation.[73] TheChinesegovernmenthasdeniedforcedtransferofIPisamandatorypractice,andacknowledgedtheimpactofdomesticR&DperformedinChina.[74]FormerU.S.treasurysecretaryLarrySummersassessedthatChineseleadershipinsometechnologicalfieldswastheresultof"hugegovernmentinvestmentinbasicscience"andnot"theft"ofU.S.properties.[75]InMarch2019,theNationalPeople'sCongressendorsedanewforeigninvestmentbill,totakeeffectin2020,whichexplicitlyprohibitstheforcedtransferofIPfromforeigncompanies,andgrantsstrongerprotectiontoforeignintellectualpropertyandtradesecrets.Chinahadalsoplannedtoliftrestrictionsonforeigninvestmentintheautomotiveindustryin2022.AmChamChinapolicycommitteechairLesterRosscriticizedthebill,sayingthetextofthebillwas"rushed"and"broad",andalsocriticizedaportionofthebillthatgrantedthecountrypowertoretaliateagainstcountriesthatimposerestrictionsonChinesecompanies.[76][77][78] On20January2021,ChinaimposedsanctionsagainstoutgoingUSSecretaryofStateMikePompeo,formersecretaryofhealthandhumanservicesAlexAzar,formerundersecretaryofstateKeithJ.Krach,outgoingUSambassadortotheUnitedNationsKellyCraft,and24otherformerTrumpofficials.[79]Biden'sNationalSecurityCouncilcalledthesanctions"unproductiveandcynical."[80] Chronology[edit] WhiteHouseNationalTradeCouncilDirectorPeterNavarrospeaksontradewithVicePresidentMikePenceandCommerceSecretaryWilburRossbeforethePresidentsignsExecutiveOrdersregardingtrade.[81][82] 2018[edit] January22:Trumpannouncedtariffsonsolarpanelsandwashingmachines.[83]About8%ofAmericansolarpanelimportsin2017camefromChina.[84]ImportsofresidentialwashingmachinesfromChinatotaledabout$1.1billionin2015.[85] March1:Trumpannouncedsteelandaluminiumtariffsonimportsfromallcountries.[86]TheUnitedStateshadimportedabout3%ofitssteelfromChina.[87]TheannouncementdrewcriticismfromtheeditorialboardofTheWallStreetJournal,whichcalledtheexecutiveorder"thebiggestpolicyblunderofhisPresidency."[88] March22:TrumpaskedtheUnitedStatestraderepresentative(USTR)toinvestigateapplyingtariffsonUS$50–60billionworthofChinesegoods.[89][90][91]HereliedonSection301oftheTradeActof1974fordoingso,statingthattheproposedtariffswere"aresponsetotheunfairtradepracticesofChinaovertheyears",includingtheftofU.S.intellectualproperty.[92][89]Over1,300categoriesofChineseimportswerelistedfortariffs,includingaircraftparts,batteries,flat-paneltelevisions,medicaldevices,satellites,andvariousweapons.[93][94] April2:MinistryofCommerceofChinarespondedbyimposingtariffson128productsitimportsfromAmerica,includingaluminium,airplanes,cars,pork,andsoybeans(whichhavea25%tariff),aswellasfruit,nuts,andsteelpiping(15%).[95][96][97]U.S.commercesecretaryWilburRosssaidthattheplannedChinesetariffsonlyreflected0.3%ofU.S.grossdomesticproduct,andPressSecretarySarahHuckabeeSandersstatedthatthemoveswouldhave"short-termpain"butbring"long-termsuccess".[43][44][98][99] April3:TheU.S.TradeRepresentative'sofficepublishedaninitiallistof1,300+Chinesegoodstoimposeleviesupon,includingproductslikeflat-screentelevisions,weapons,satellites,medicaldevices,aircraftpartsandbatteries.[100][101][102]ChineseAmbassadorCuiTiankairespondedbywarningtheU.S.thattheymayfightback,saying"Wehavedonetheutmosttoavoidthiskindofsituation,butiftheothersidemakesthewrongchoice,thenwehavenoalternativebuttofightback."[103] April4:China'sCustomsTariffCommissionoftheStateCouncildecidedtoannounceaplanofadditionaltariffsof25%on106itemsofproductsincludingautomobiles,airplanes,andsoybeans.[104]SoybeansarethetopU.S.agriculturalexporttoChina.[105][106] April5:Trumpsaidthathewasconsideringanotherroundoftariffsonanadditional$100billionofChineseimportsasBeijingretaliates.[107]ThenextdaytheWorldTradeOrganizationreceivedrequestfromChinaforconsultationsonnewU.S.tariffs.[108] ChinesevicepremierLiuHemeetingwithU.S.presidentDonaldTrumpinMay2018. May9:ChinacancelledsoybeanordersexportedfromUnitedStatestoChina.ZhangXiaoping,ChinesedirectorfortheU.S.SoybeanExportCouncil,saidChinesebuyerssimplystoppedbuyingfromtheU.S.[109] May15:VicePremierandPolitburomemberLiuHe,topeconomicadvisertopresidentofChinaandGeneralSecretaryXiJinping,visitedWashingtonforfurthertradetalks.[91][110] May20:Chineseofficialsagreedto"substantiallyreduce"America'stradedeficitwithChina[110]bycommittingto"significantlyincrease"itspurchasesofAmericangoods.Asaresult,TreasurySecretaryStevenMnuchinannouncedthat"Weareputtingthetradewaronhold".[111]WhiteHouseNationalTradeCouncildirectorPeterNavarrosaidtherewasno"tradewar",rathera"tradedispute,fairandsimple.Welostthetradewarlongago."[112] May21:Trumptweetedthat"ChinahasagreedtobuymassiveamountsofADDITIONALFarm/AgriculturalProducts,"althoughhelaterclarifiedthepurchaseswerecontingentupontheclosureofa"potentialdeal."[113] May29:TheWhiteHouseannouncedthatitwouldimposea25%tariffon$50billionofChinesegoodswith"industriallysignificanttechnology;"thefulllistofproductsaffectedtobeannouncedbyJune15.[114]ItalsoplannedtoimposeinvestmentrestrictionsandenhancedexportcontrolsoncertainChineseindividualsandorganizationstopreventthemfromacquiringU.S.technology.[115]ChinasaiditwoulddiscontinuetradetalkswithWashingtonifitimposedtradesanctions."[116] June15:TrumpdeclaredthattheUnitedStateswouldimposea25%tariffon$50billionofChineseexports.$34billionwouldstartJuly6,2018,withafurther$16billiontobeginatalaterdate.[117][118][119]China'sCommerceMinistryaccusedtheUnitedStatesoflaunchingatradewarandsaidChinawouldrespondinkindwithsimilartariffsforUSimports,startingonJuly6.[120]Threedayslater,theWhiteHousedeclaredthattheUnitedStateswouldimposeadditional10%tariffsonanother$200billionworthofChineseimportsifChinaretaliatedagainsttheseU.S.tariffs.[91]ThelistofproductsincludedinthisroundoftariffswasreleasedonJuly11,2018,andwassettobeimplementedwithin60days.[citationneeded] June19:Chinaretaliates,threateningitsowntariffson$50billionofU.S.goods,andstatingthattheUnitedStateshadlaunchedatradewar.Importandexportmarketsinanumberofnationsfearedthetariffswoulddisruptsupplychainswhichcould"ripplearoundtheglobe."[121] July6:Americantariffson$34billionofChinesegoodscameintoeffect.ChinaimposedretaliatorytariffsonUSgoodsofasimilarvalue.Thetariffsaccountedfor0.1%oftheglobalgrossdomesticproduct.[122][123]OnJuly10,2018,U.S.releasedaninitiallistoftheadditional$200billionofChinesegoodsthatwouldbesubjecttoa10%tariff.[124]Twodayslater,ChinavowedtoretaliatewithadditionaltariffsonAmericangoodsworth$60billionannually.[125] August8:TheOfficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentativepublisheditsfinalizedlistof279Chinesegoods,worth$16billion,tobesubjecttoa25%tarifffromAugust23.[91][126][127]Inresponse,Chinaimposed25%tariffson$16billionofimportsfromtheUS,whichwasimplementedinparallelwiththeUStariffsonAugust23.[128] August14:ChinafiledacomplaintwiththeWorldTradeOrganization(WTO),statingthatUStariffsonforeignsolarpanelsclashwithWTOrulingandhavedestabilizedtheinternationalmarketforsolarPVproducts.ChinastatedthattheresultingimpactdirectlyharmedChina'slegitimatetradeinterests.PengPeng,aresearcherwiththeChinaRenewableEnergyIndustryAssociationsaidthatthesolarproblemhasexistedforyearsandthoughtthatChinachosetobringitupinordertokeepuptherhythmofthetradedispute.[129] August22:UStreasuryundersecretaryDavidMalpassandChinesecommercevice-ministerWangShouwenmetinWashington,D.C.inabidtoreopennegotiations.Meanwhile,onAugust23,2018,theUSandChina'spromisedtariffson$16billionofgoodstookeffect,[130]andonAugust27,2018,ChinafiledanewWTOcomplaintagainsttheUSregardingtheadditionaltariffs.[131] September17:TheUSannouncedits10%tariffon$200billionworthofChinesegoodswouldbeginonSeptember24,2018,increasingto25%bytheendoftheyear.Theyalsothreatenedtariffsonanadditional$267billionworthofimportsifChinaretaliates,[132]whichChinapromptlydidonSeptember18with10%tariffson$60billionofUSimports.[133][134]Sofar,Chinahaseitherimposedorproposedtariffson$110billionofU.S.goods,representingmostofitsimportsofAmericanproducts.[132] November10:WhiteHouseNationalTradeCouncildirectorPeterNavarroallegedthatagroupofWallStreetbillionairesareconductinganinfluenceoperationonbehalfoftheChinesegovernmentbyweakeningthepresidentandtheU.S.negotiatingposition,andurgedthemtoinvestintherustbelt.[135][136] November30:PresidentTrumpsignedtherevisedU.S.–Mexico–CanadaAgreementinBuenosAires,Argentina.TheUSMCAcontainsa"rulesoforigin"provisionforautomobilethatwas"toutedbytheTrumpadministrationasatooltokeepoutChineseinputsandencourageproductionandinvestmentintheUSandNorthAmerica."[137] December1:Theplannedincreasesintariffswerepostponed.TheWhiteHousestatedthatbothpartieswill"immediatelybeginnegotiationsonstructuralchangeswithrespecttoforcedtechnologytransfer,intellectualpropertyprotection,non-tariffbarriers,cyberintrusionsandcybertheft."[138][139]AccordingtotheTrumpAdministration,"Ifattheendof[90days],thepartiesareunabletoreachanagreement,the10percenttariffswillberaisedto25percent."[140][141]TheU.S.traderepresentative'sofficeconfirmedtheharddeadlineforChina'sstructuralchangesisMarch1,2019.[142][143] December4:NewYorkFedpresidentJohnWilliamssaidthathebelievedtheUSeconomywillstaystrongin2019.[144]Williamsexpectsthatincreasesintheinterestrateswillbenecessarytomaintaintheeconomy.Hestated,"Giventhisoutlookofstronggrowth,stronglabormarketandinflationnearourgoalandtakingaccountallthevariousrisksaroundtheoutlook,Idoexpectfurthergradualincreasesininterestrateswillbestsponsorasustainedeconomicexpansion."[144] December11:TrumpannouncedChinawasbuyinga"tremendousamount"ofU.S.soybeans.Commoditiestraderssawnoevidenceofsuchpurchases,andoverthenextsixmonthssoybeanexportstoChinawereaboutonequarterwhattheywerein2017,beforethetradeconflictbegan.[145]ChinareportedlyconsideredpurchasesofAmericanfarmgoodsascontingentuponclosingacomprehensivetradedeal.[146] 2019[edit] January14:AnarticleinTheWallStreetJournalreportsthatinChina's2018tradesurpluswiththeUnitedStateswasarecord$323.32billiondespiteTrump'stariffs.[147] March6:TheU.S.DepartmentofCommercestatedthatin2018theU.S.tradedeficitwithChinareached$621billion,thehighestithadbeensince2008.[148] May5:Trumpstatedthattheprevioustariffsof10%leviedin$200billionworthofChinesegoodswouldberaisedto25%onMay10.[149]WithnotificationbyUSTR,theFederalRegisteronMay9publishedthemodificationofdutyonorafter12:01 a.m.EasternTimeZoneMay10to25%fortheproductsofChinacoveredbytheSeptember2018action.[150]ThestatedreasonbeingthatChinarenegeduponalreadyagreedupondeals.[151] May9:Trumpsaidthetariffsare"paidformostlybyChina,bytheway,notbyus."EconomicanalystsconcludedthiswasanincorrectassertionasAmericanbusinessesandconsumersultimatelypaythetariffsasreal-worldexamplesoftariffsworkingasintendedarerare,andconsumersofthetariff-levyingcountryaretheprimaryvictimsoftariffs,byhavingtopayhigherprices."Itisinaccuratetosaythatcountriespaytariffsoncommercialandconsumergoods—itisthebuyersandsellersthatbearthecosts,"saidRossBurkhart,aBoiseStateUniversitypoliticalscientist."Purchaserspaythetariffwhentheybuypopularproducts.Sellerslosemarketsharewhentheirproductsgetpricedoutofmarkets,"Burkhartadded.[152][153][154] May15:Trumpsignedexecutiveorder13873,placingHuaweiontheDepartmentofCommerce'sEntityList.AccordingtoReuters,themovebannedHuaweifrombuyingvitalpartsandcomponentsfromU.S.companieswithoutspecialapprovalandeffectivelybarreditsequipmentfromU.S.telecomnetworksonnationalsecuritygrounds.[155][156] June1:Chinawillraisetariffson$60billionworthofUSgoods.[157] June29:DuringtheG20Osakasummit,TrumpannouncesheandXiJinpingagreedtoa"truce"inthetradewarafterextensivetalks.Priortariffsaretoremainineffect,butnofuturetariffsaretobeenacted"forthetimebeing"amidrestartednegotiations.Additionally,TrumpsaidhewouldallowAmericancompaniestoselltheirproductstoHuawei,butthecompanywouldremainontheU.S.EntityList.[158]TheextenttowhichthisplantotemporarilyexemptHuaweifrompreviousbanswouldbeimplementedlaterbecameunclearand,intheweekslater,therewasnoclearindicationofthereversalofHuaweibans.[159][160] June29:AfterameetingwithChineseleaderXiJinping,Trumpannounces"Chinaisgoingtobebuyingatremendousamountoffoodandagriculturalproduct,andthey'regoingtostartthatverysoon,almostimmediately."[161]Chinadisputedmakingsuchacommitmentandonemonthlaternosuchpurchaseshadmaterialized.[146][162] July11:Trumptweeted"ChinaislettingusdowninthattheyhavenotbeenbuyingtheagriculturalproductsfromourgreatFarmersthattheysaidtheywould."PeoplefamiliarwiththetradenegotiationssaidChinahadmadenofirmcommitmentstopurchasefarmgoodsunlessitwaspartofacomprehensivetradeagreement.[146] July15:OfficialfiguresfromChinashoweditssecond-quarterGDPgrowthatitsslowestin27years.[163] July17:ChinaannouncedanaccelerateddecreaseinholdingsofUStreasuryholdings,targeting25%ofitscurrentholdingsof$1.1trillion.[164] August1:TrumpannouncedonTwitterthatadditional10%tariffwillbeleviedonthe"remaining$300billionofgoods".[165] August5:ThecentralbankofChina(PBOC)lettheRenminbifallover2%inthreedaystothelowestpointsince2008asitwashitbystrongsalesduetothethreatoftariffs.[166] August5:TheU.S.DepartmentofTreasuryofficiallydeclaredChinaasaCurrencyManipulatorafterthePeople'sBankofChinaalloweditsyuantodepreciatethat,accordingtoCNN,wasseenasretaliationtoTrump'sAugust1tariffannouncement.[167]AccordingtoanarticleintheWashingtonPost,TrumpreportedlypressuredtheTreasuryDepartmentStevenMnuchintoauthorizethedesignation.BoththeIMFandtheChinesegovernmenthaverejectedthedesignation,withtheIMFsayingthatthevaluationoftheyuanareinlinewithChina'seconomicfundamentals.[166][168] August5:Chinaorderedstate-ownedenterprisestostopbuyingUSagriculturalproductsinretaliationtoTrump'sAugust1tariffannouncement.[169]ZippyDuvall,presidentoftheAmericanFarmBureauFederation,calledthemove"abodyblowtothousandsoffarmersandrancherswhoarealreadystrugglingtogetby,"adding,"FarmBureaueconomiststellusexportstoChinaweredownby$1.3billionduringthefirsthalfoftheyear.Now,westandtoloseallofwhatwasa$9.1billionmarketin2018,whichwasdownsharplyfromthe$19.5billionU.S.farmersexportedtoChinain2017."[170] August13:OfficialfiguresfromChinashoweditsindustrialoutputgrowthfallingamidthetradewartoa17-yearlow.[171] August13:Trumpdelayedsomeofthetariffs.$112billionworthwillstilltakeplaceonSeptember1(whichmeansthatonSeptember1,$362billiontotalworth,includingthenewlyimposed$112billion,ofChineseproductswillfaceatariff),buttheadditional,notyetimposed,$160billionwillnottakeeffectuntilDecember15.[172]TrumpandhisadvisorsPeterNavarro,WilburRossandLarryKudlowsaidthatthetariffswerepostponedtoavoidharmingAmericanconsumersduringtheChristmasshoppingseason.[173] August23:ChineseMinistryofFinanceannouncednewroundsofretaliativetariffson$75billionworthofU.S.goods,effectivebeginningSeptember1.[174] August23:Trumptweetedthathe"herebyordered"Americancompaniesto"immediatelystartlookingforanalternativetoChina".AccordingtoanarticleinTheNewYorkTimes,Trump'saidessaidthatnoorderhadbeendrawnupnorwasitclearonewouldbe.Inatweetonthefollowingday,Trumpsaidthathehadtheauthoritytomakegoodonhisthreat,citingtheInternationalEmergencyEconomicPowersActof1977.[175]Furthermore,tariffsaretoberaisedfrom25%to30%ontheexisting$250billionworthofChinesegoodsbeginningonOctober1,2019,andfrom10%to15%ontheremaining$300billionworthofgoodsbeginningonDecember15,2019.[176] August26:AttheG7summit,Trumpstated,"Chinacalledlastnightourtoptradepeopleandsaid'let'sgetbacktothetable'sowewillbegettingbacktothetableandIthinktheywanttodosomething.TheyhavebeenhurtverybadlybuttheyunderstandthisistherightthingtodoandIhavegreatrespectforit."[177]ChineseForeignMinistryspokesmanGengShuangsaidhewasunawareofsuchacall[178]andTrumpaideslatersaidthecalldidn'toccurbutthepresidentwastryingtoprojectoptimism.[179] August28:AmericansforFreeTrade,anumbrellagroupfor161tradeassociationsacrossnumerousindustries,[180]sentTrumpaletteraskinghimtopostponeallscheduledtariffincreases.[181]Thenextday,Trumpsaid"badlyrunandweakcompaniesaresmartlyblamingthesesmallTariffsinsteadofthemselvesforbadmanagement."[182] September1:NewUSAandChinesetariffspreviouslyannouncedwentintoeffectat12:01pmEST.Chinaimposed5%to10%tariffsonone-thirdofthe5,078goodsitimportsfromAmerica,withtariffsontheremainderscheduledforDecember15.[183]TheUnitedStatesimposednew15%tariffsonabout$112billionofChineseimports,suchthatmorethantwo-thirdsofconsumergoodsimportedfromChinawerethensubjecttotariffs.[184] September4:TheOfficeoftheU.S.TradeRepresentativeandChinesestatemediaconfirmedthatdeputy-levelmeetingsinmid-Septemberwouldleadtoministerial-leveltalksincomingweeks.[185][186]Atthesametime,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerceissuedpreliminaryantidumpingdutydeterminationsonfabricatedstructuralsteelfromCanada,China,andMexico.Furthermore,Chinawasfoundliablefordumpingupto141.38%offabricatedstructuralsteelintotheUnitedStatesandtherebypromptedtheU.S.CustomsandBorderProtectiontocollectcashdepositsinthesamerate,asinstructedbytheCommerceDepartment.[187] September6:ThePeople'sBankofChinaannouncesa0.5percentreductioninitsreserverequirementratioinresponsetotheslowingofChina'seconomicgrowthratescausedbythetradewar.[188] September11:AfterChinaannounceditwasexempting16Americanproducttypesfromtariffsforoneyear,TrumpannouncedhewoulddelayuntilOctober15atariffincreaseonChinesegoodspreviouslyscheduledforOctober1.TrumpassertedhegrantedthedelayattherequestofChinesevicepremierLiuHe.[189][190] September12:BloombergNewsandPoliticoreportedthatTrumpadvisorswereincreasinglyconcernedthatthetradewarwasweakeningtheAmericaneconomygoingintothe2020electioncampaignandwerediscussingwaystoreachalimitedinterimdeal.[191][192]TheWallStreetJournalreportedChinawasseekingtonarrowthescopeofnegotiationstoplacenationalsecuritymattersonaseparatetrackfromtradeissues.[193] September26:TheWallStreetJournalreportedthatChineseretaliatorytariffsonlumberandwoodproductshadcausedhardwoodlumberexportstoChinatofall40%during2019,resultinginAmericanlumbermillsslashingemployment.[194]AUSDAspokespersonsaidtheorganizationhadprovidedtheindustry$5millioninaidthroughitsAgriculturalTradePromotionProgram.[195] October7:Citinghumanrightsissues,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerceputs20Chinesepublicsecuritybureausandeighthightechcompanies,suchasHikVision,SenseTimeandMegvii,ontheExportAdministrationRegulationsEntityList.LikeHuawei,whichwassanctionedonanidenticalblueprintfornationalsecurityreasons,theentitieswillneedU.S.governmentapprovalbeforetheycanpurchasecomponentsfromU.S.companies.[196] October11:TrumpannouncedthattheUnitedStatesandChinahadreachedatentativeagreementforthe"firstphase"ofatradedeal,withChinaagreeingtobuyupto$50billioninAmericanfarmproducts,andtoacceptmoreAmericanfinancialservicesintheirmarket,withtheUnitedStatesagreeingtosuspendnewtariffsscheduledforOctober15.Thedealwasexpectedtobefinalizedincomingweeks.[197][198]Atthesametime,Chineseannouncementsdidnotexpressthesameconfidence,[199]thoughafewdayslatertheChineseForeignMinistrysaidthatthetwosideshadthesameunderstandingandhadreachedanagreement.[200] October17:OfficialfiguresfromChinashoweditsthirdquarterGDPgrowthatitsslowestinalmost30years.[201] December13:BothcountriesannounceaninitialdealwherenewtariffstobemutuallyimposedonDecember15wouldnotbeimplemented.Chinasaysit"willincreasepurchasesofhigh-qualityagriculturalproductsfromtheU.S.",whiletheUnitedStatessaysitwillhalvetheexisting15%tariffs.[202][203][204] December31:TheWallStreetJournalreportedthatthelanguageofthephaseonedealwasexpectedtobereleasedaftertheJanuary15signing,andthatLighthizersaidsomedetailswouldbeclassified.[205] 2020[edit] TrumpandLiusignthePhaseOneTradeDealinJanuary2020 January3:ReutersreportedthatinDecember2019theAmericanmanufacturingsectorfellintoitsdeepestslumpinoveradecade,attributingthedeclinetotheU.S.-Chinatradewar.[206] January15:U.S.PresidentDonaldTrumpandChina'sVicePremierLiuHesignedtheUS–ChinaPhaseOnetradedealinWashingtonDC.[207][208]The"EconomicandTradeAgreementbetweentheUnitedStatesofAmericaandthePeople'sRepublicofChina"issettotakeeffectfromFebruary14,2020,andfocusesonintellectualpropertyrights(Chapter1),technologytransfer(Chapter2),foodandagriculturalproducts(Chapter3),financialservices(Chapter4),exchangeratemattersandtransparency(Chapter5),andexpandingtrade(Chapter6),withreferencealsobeingmadetobilateralevaluationanddisputeresolutionproceduresinChapter7.[209]Theagreementallowsforapartytorequestadditionalconsultationintheeventofa"naturaldisasterorotherunforeseeableevent."[210][211][212]Unlikeothertradeagreements,theUS–ChinaPhaseOneagreementdidnotrelyonarbitrationthroughanintergovernmentalorganizationliketheWorldTradeOrganization,butratherthroughabilateralmechanism.[213][214] January17:OfficialfiguresfromChinashowedits2019economicgrowthratefallingamidthetradewartoa30-yearlow.[215][216] February5:DatafromtheCommerceDepartmentoftheUnitedStatesshowedthecountry'stradedeficitfallingamidthetradewarforthefirsttimein6years.[217] February17:Chinagrantstariffexemptionson696USgoodstosupportpurchases.[218] March5:TheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentativegrantedexemptionstotariffsonvarioustypesofmedicalequipment,aftercallsfromAmericanlawmakersandotherstoremovetariffsontheseproductsinlightoftheCOVID-19pandemicintheUnitedStates.[219][220] May12:TheChinesegovernmentannouncedexemptionsfortariffson79additionalUSgoods.[221] May14:TheChinesegovernmentannouncedthatitwouldpermitimportsofbarleyandblueberriesfromtheUnitedStates.[222] AsofJune,ChinahadrisentobecometheUnitedStates'toptradingpartneragain,amidtheglobalcrisiscausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.However,thecountrieswereontracktomissthetargetsfromthetradedeal,hittingwhichwouldhavebeenhardevenunderstrongeconomicconditions,accordingtoChadBrownofthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsandChenjunPanofRabobank.Theeconomicdamageandbarrierstotradecausedbythepandemicmadethosetargetsevenhardertoreach.[221][223] September15:Athree-personWTOpanelfoundthattheTrumpadministrationtariffsviolatedglobaltraderulesbecausetheyhadbeenappliedonlytoChinaandtheyexceededthemaximumratestheUShadagreedto,withoutadequateexplanation.Lighthizerrespondedthatthefindingshowed"theWTOiscompletelyinadequatetostopChina'sharmfultechnologypractices."[224] September26:TheUSCommerceDepartmentimposedrestrictionsonChina'slargestchipmaker,SemiconductorManufacturingInternationalCorporation(SMIC),determiningthatan"unacceptablerisk"equipmentsuppliedtoSMICcouldpotentiallybeusedformilitarypurposes.Undertherestrictions,thesupplierswerebarredfromexportingthechipwithoutalicense.[225] November8:PresidentDonaldTrumpsignedanexecutiveorderprohibitingAmericansfrominvestinginsharesofcompanieswithtiestotheChinesemilitary.Newtransactionswouldbebarredfrom11January2021,whileinvestorsthatalreadyheldsuchstockswouldhaveuntilNovember2021todivestthem.[226][227]On6January2021,theNewYorkStockExchangeannouncedthatitwoulddeliststocksrelatedtoChinaMobile,ChinaTelecomandChinaUnicom.[228][229]IndexproviderMSCIalsoannounceditwouldstopincludingChinaMobile,ChinaTelecomandChinaUnicominitsbenchmarks.[230][231] Bytheendof2020,ChinaandtheU.S.hadachievedonly58%oftargetsforU.S.exportstoChinaunderthephaseonetradeagreement.Thiswasseenasasignthattheoriginaltargetswereunrealistic.[232][233]TheU.S.-basedPetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicssaidChinahad"failedspectacularly"tomeetitsimporttargetsand"muchofthedealwasafailure."[233][234] 2021[edit] January13:TheTrumpadministrationbannedcottonandtomatoproductsoriginatinginXinjiang,includingproductsmanufacturedoutsideofChinabutusingcottonandtomatoesfromXinjiang,overforcedlaborallegations.[235] January20:TrumpleftofficeandJoeBidenwasinauguratedaspresidentoftheUnitedStates.Bidensaidthathedidnothaveimmediateplanstoremovethetariffsandplannedtoreviewthephaseonetradedealanddiscussthematterwithalliesfirst.[233] January20:ChinaimposedsanctionsagainstoutgoingUSSecretaryofStateMikePompeo,formersecretaryofhealthandhumanservicesAlexAzar,formerundersecretaryofstateKeithJ.Krach,outgoingUSambassadortotheUnitedNationsKellyCraft,and24otherformerTrumpofficials.[79]Biden'sNationalSecurityCouncilcalledthesanctions"unproductiveandcynical."[80] February22:China'sForeignMinisterWangYicalledforUSPresidentJoeBidentoliftthemultiplerestrictionsimposedbyTrump.DuringaForeignMinistryforumonUS-Chinarelations,heurgedtheBidenadministrationtoliftthesanctionsontradeandpeople-to-peoplecontact,whileaskingittostopinterferinginChina'sinternalaffairs.[236] March18–19:HighleveltalkstookplaceinAnchorage,Alaskatodiscusskeygeopoliticaldisagreements.[237][238] InMayandJune2021,discussionscontinuedbetweenhigh-levelofficials,includingLiuHeandWangWentaofromChinaandKatherineTai,JanetYellen,andGinaRaimondofromtheUnitedStates.TheChineseMinistryofCommercedescribedthetalksascandid,productive,andpragmatic,[239]whileTaiandYellensaidtheylookedforwardtofurtherdialogue.[240] Effects[edit] Theexamplesandperspectiveinthissectionmaynotrepresentaworldwideviewofthesubject.Youmayimprovethissection,discusstheissueonthetalkpage,orcreateanewsection,asappropriate.(May2020)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) ANovember2019UnitedNationsanalysisreportedthat"theU.S.tariffsonChinaareeconomicallyhurtingbothcountries".[241]ANovember2019articleintheFinancialTimessaidthatsinceAugust2019thetradewarhadhitUSmanufacturersharderthanChina's.[242][needsupdate] China[edit] InApril2018,Chinaannouncedthatitwouldeliminatelawsthatrequiredglobalautomakersandshipbuilderstoworkthroughstate-ownedpartners.[243]PresidentofChinaandGeneralSecretaryXiJinpingreiteratedthosepledges,[244]affirmingadesiretoincreaseimports,lowerforeign-ownershiplimitsonmanufacturingandexpandprotectiontointellectualproperty,allcentralissuesinTrump'scomplaintsabouttheirtradeimbalance.[245]TrumpthankedXiforhis"kindwordsontariffsandautomobilebarriers"and"hisenlightenment"onintellectualpropertyandtechnologytransfers."Wewillmakegreatprogresstogether!"thepresidentadded.[245] Asaresponsetothetradewar,ChinaincreasedthepersonalincometaxthresholdfromCN¥3,500toCN¥5,000(US$705)inJanuary2019,andreducedthetoptierofvalueaddedtaxfrom16%to13%inApril2019.Incometaxdeductionswerealsoallowedforfamilycare,medicalandeducationalexpenses,aswellasformortgageinterest.ThetaxcutswerewortharoundCN¥2.3trillion(US$324billion).[246] InMay2019,China'sindustrialoutputgrowthfellto5.0%,whichwasthelowestratein17years.[247]Exportsfellby1.3%inJunecomparedtothepreviousyear;importsdeclined8.5%inMayand7.3%inJune.[248]AccordingtoananalysisbyPetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicspublishedinJune2019,ChinahadloweredtariffsonimportsfromcountriesotherthantheU.S.fromanaverageof8.0%to6.7%,whileaveragetariffsonU.S.importsrosefrom8.0%to20.7%.[249] InDecember2019,theSouthChinaMorningPostreportedthat,duetothetradewarandtheChinesegovernment'scrackdownonshadowbanking,Chinesemanufacturinginvestmentswereexpandingatthelowestratesincerecordsbegan.[250]Economicgrowthratefor2019was6.1%,theslowestsince1990.[246] ThetradewarcontributedtoariseinChinesenationalism;theSouthChinaMorningPostreportedthattheconflicthelpedtheCommunistParty"shoreupmuch-neededdomesticsupport".[251] UnitedStates[edit] ByearlyJuly2018,therewerenegativeandpositiveresultsalreadyshowingupintheAmericaneconomyasaresultofthetariffs,asanumberofindustriesshowedemploymentgrowthwhileotherswereplanningonlayoffs.[252][253]Americancommentatorsnotedthatconsumerproductswerethemostlikelytobeaffectedbythetariffs.Atimelineofwhencostswouldrisewasuncertainascompanieshadtofigureoutiftheycouldsustainatariffhikewithoutpassingonthecoststoconsumers.[254] AmericanfarmerswereparticularlyseverelyaffectedbyChina'sretaliatorytradeactions.[223]Inresponse,theTrumpadministration'saidreliefforthedifficultiesfacedbythefarmerscameintheformofcashpayments,securingadditionaltradedealsandmodifyingenvironmentalregulationstobenefitcornfarmers.[255][256][257][258]AccordingtotheAmericanFarmBureau,agriculturalexportsfromtheUStoChinadecreasedfrom$24billionin2014to$9.1billionin2018,includingdecreasesinsalesofpork,soybeans,andwheat.Farmbankruptcieshaveincreased,andagriculturalequipmentmanufacturerDeere&CompanycutitsprofitforecasttwicebetweenJanuaryandAugust2019.[256]AnAugust2019USDAreportshowedthatasAmericanwheatexportstoChinadropped,CanadianwheatexportstoChinarosefrom32%tomorethan60%.[256][259]Farmequipmentmanufacturerswerenegativelyaffectedbythereluctanceoffarmerstoinvestinnewequipment,withsalesdroppingsignificantlyduringthefirstquarterof2019.[260][256]Yetdespitethenegativeeffects,pollsinJuly2019showedthatmostfarmerscontinuedtosupportTrump,as78%ofthemsaidtheybelievedthetradewarwillultimatelybenefitU.S.agriculture.[261]TheGovernmentAccountabilityOfficeannouncedinFebruary2020thatitwouldexaminetheprogram,amidreportsthataidwasbeingimproperlydistributed.[262] AccordingtoastudybytheNationalRetailFederationoftheUnitedStates,a25%tariffonChinesefurniturealonewouldcostUSconsumersanadditional$4.6billioninannualpayments.[263][264] AnalysisconductedbythePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsfoundthatChinaimposeduniformtariffsaveraging8%onallitsimportersinJanuary2018,beforethetradewarbegan.ByJune2019,tariffsonAmericanimportshadincreasedto20.7%,whiletariffsonothernationsdeclinedto6.7%.[265]TheanalysisalsofoundthataverageAmericantariffsonChinesegoodsincreasedfrom3.1%in2017to24.3%byAugust2019.[266] AnalysisbyGoldmanSachsinMay2019foundthattheconsumerpriceindexforninecategoriesoftariffedgoodshadincreaseddramatically,comparedtoadecliningCPIforallothercoregoods.[267] InAugust2019,TrumptradeadvisorPeterNavarroassertedtariffswerenothurtingAmericans.PolitifactratedNavarro'sassertion"PantsonFire."[268] SurveysofconsumersentimentandsmallbusinessconfidenceshowedsharpdeclinesinAugust2019onuncertaintycausedbythetradewar.[269][270]ThecloselyfollowedPurchasingManagers'IndexformanufacturingfromtheInstituteforSupplyManagementshowedcontractioninAugust,forthefirsttimesinceJanuary2016;theISMquotedseveralexecutivesexpressinganxietyaboutthecontinuingtradewar,citingshrinkingexportordersandthechallengesofshiftingtheirsupplychainsoutofChina.TheIHSMarkitmanufacturingpurchasingmanagers'indexalsoshowedcontractioninAugust,forthefirsttimesinceSeptember2009.[271]ThedaytheISMreportwasreleased,Trumptweeted,"China'sSupplyChainwillcrumbleandbusinesses,jobsandmoneywillbegone!"[272][273] AnalysisconductedbyMoody'sAnalyticsestimatedthatthroughAugust2019300,000Americanjobshadeitherbeenlostornotcreatedduetothetradewar,especiallyaffectingmanufacturing,warehousing,distributionandretail.[274] BySeptember2019,Americanmanufacturerswerereducingtheircapitalinvestmentsanddelayinghiringduetouncertaintycausedbythetradewar.[275] Americanimporterswereallowedtoapplyforexclusionsfromthetariffs.TheWallStreetJournalreportedinFebruary2020thattheUSTRwasgrantingfewertariffwaiverstoAmericanfirms,downfrom35%ofrequestsforthefirsttwotranchesoftariffsin2018to3%forthethirdtranchein2019.[276]Themechanismforapplyingforexclusionsexpiredin2020.[277] Overalleconomy[edit] AnalysispublishedbyTheWallStreetJournalinOctober2020foundthetradewardidnotachievetheprimaryobjectiveofrevivingAmericanmanufacturing,nordiditresultinthereshoringoffactoryproduction.Thoughthetradewarledtohigheremploymentincertainindustries,tariffsledtoanetlossofU.S.manufacturingjobs.ThetradewarreducedtheUnitedStates'tradedeficitwithChinain2019,butthistrendreverseditselfin2020,withthetradedeficitincreasingbacktoitspre–tradewarlevel,whiletheUnitedStates'overalltradedeficithasincreased.[278] DespitetheUnitedStatestradedeficitwithChinadecliningsharplyfromtherecordhighin2018,duringtheTrumppresidencytheoveralldeficitincreasedtothehighestlevelsince2008,asAmericanbusinessesshiftedtheirimportstoothercountriestoavoidtheTrumptariffs.Thedeficitingoodsincreased21%from2016,toarecordhigh.Americanexports—notablyfarmgoods—werealsoweakenedbyretaliatoryactionsfromChina,theEuropeanUnionandothercountries.[279] Stockmarket[edit] Investoruncertaintyduetothetradewarhascausedturbulenceinthestockmarket.[280][281][282] TheDowJonesIndustrialAveragefell724points,or2.9%,afterthetariffswereannouncedduetoconcernsoveratradewar.[283]CorporationsthattradedwithChina,suchasCaterpillarInc.andBoeing,sufferedlargelossesintheirstockprice.[284] OnDecember4,2018,theDowJonesIndustrialAverageloggeditsworstdayinnearlyamonthasitdeclinednearly600points,towhichsomeargueisinpartduetothetradewar.[285]OnDecember26,theDowJonesrecordedariseof1000pointsafter,accordingtoReuters,thepublicationofareportthatdocumentedstrongholidaysales,althoughthemajorindexeswerestilldownmorethan10%throughthemonthofDecember2018amidthetradewar.[286] OnAugust14,2019,theDowdropped800points,partlycausedbyincreasingtradetensionsbetweentheU.S.andChina.[287]Ninedayslater,onAugust23,theDowdropped623pointsonthedaythatTrumpinformallyorderedAmericancompaniestoimmediatelyseekalternativestodoingbusinessinChina.[288][289]Bytheendof2019,stockmarketsreachedrecordhighs,havingrisenduetotheagreementbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinatosignthefirstphaseofatradedeal.[290][291] Elections[edit] Analystsspeculatedthatthetradewarcouldaffectthe2020UnitedStatespresidentialelection,astariffshavenegativelyaffectedfarmers,animportantconstituencyforTrump.[292][293]AnalystsalsospeculatedonhowthetradewaraffectedXiJinpinginrelationtothedomesticpressuresthathefaced.[293] In2021,followingthetransitiontotheBidenadministration,theFinancialTimesreportedthat"rushingtoremovethetariffscouldproverisky"fortheDemocratsinthe2022UnitedStateselections.[277] Othercountries[edit] Economicgrowthhasslowedworldwideamidthetradewar.[294]TheInternationalMonetaryFund'sWorldEconomicOutlookreportreleasedinApril2019loweredtheglobaleconomicgrowthforecastfor2019from3.6%expectedin2018to3.3%,andsaidthateconomicandtradefrictionsmayfurthercurbglobaleconomicgrowthandcontinueweakentheinvestment.[295]AccordingtoCapitalEconomics,China'seconomicgrowthhasslowedasaresultofthetradewar,thoughoveralltheChineseeconomy"hasheldupwell",andChina'sshareofglobalexportshasincreased.[296][better source needed]U.S.economicgrowthhasalsoslowed.[294] Globally,foreigndirectinvestmenthasslowed.[297]ThetradewarhashurttheEuropeaneconomy,particularlyGermany,eventhoughtraderelationsbetweenGermanyandChinaandbetweenGermanyandtheU.S.remaingood.[298]GermanyandtheEUhavehadhighlevelsoftradewithChina,andtheGermangovernmentandpublicwanttomaintainthesetradeties.[299]TheCanadianeconomyhasseennegativeeffectsaswell.[300]LiketheU.S.,Britain,Germany,Japan,andSouthKoreawereallshowing"aweakmanufacturingperformance"asof2019.[301]SeveralAsiangovernmentshaveinstitutedstimulusmeasurestoaddressdamagefromthetradewar,thougheconomistssaidthismaynotbeeffective.[302] Atradegrouppredictedthatdemandforsemiconductordeviceswoulddeclineby12percent,asadirectresultofthetradewar.[303] Somecountrieshavebenefitedeconomicallyfromthetradewar,atleastinsomesectors,duetoincreasingexportstotheUnitedStatesandChinatofillthegapsleftbydecreasingtradebetweenthesetwoeconomies.BeneficiariesincludeVietnam,Chile,India,Malaysia,andArgentina.[304]Vietnamisthebiggestbeneficiary,withtechnologycompaniesmovingmanufacturingthere.[304][305]SouthKoreahasalsobenefitedfromincreasedelectronicsexports,Malaysiafromsemiconductorexports,Mexicofrommotorvehicles,andBrazilfromsoybeans.[304]TradediversioneffectshavealsohadanimpactoncountriesinEastandSoutheastAsiawithTaiwangettingthelargestboost.[306]US-ASEANBusinessCouncilCEOAlexFeldmansaidthesecountriesmaynotbenefitforlong:"It'sineveryone'sinteresttoseethisspatgetresolvedandgobacktonormaltraderelationsbetweentheUSandChina."[307]SeveralTaiwanesecompanieshavebeenexpandingproductiondomestically,includingQuantaComputer,SercommandWistron,creatingover21,000jobs.[308]ThisinvestmentledtoasignificantstrengtheningoftheNewTaiwanDollarwhichhadnotbeenexpectedpre-TradeWar.[309]NintendohasreportedlymovedsomeNintendoSwitchproductionfromChinatoSoutheastAsia.[310] Thetradewarhasindirectlycausedsomecompaniestogobankrupt.Oneofthem,TaiwaneseLCDpanelmanufacturerChunghwaPictureTubes(CPT),wentbankruptasaresultofanexcesssupplyofpanelsandasubsequentcollapseinprices,whichwasaidedbyvulnerabilitytothetradewar(causedbyoverexpansioninChina),aslowingTaiwaneseandglobaleconomyandaslowdownintheelectronicssector.[308][311] Reactions[edit] Theneutralityofthissectionisdisputed.Relevantdiscussionmaybefoundonthetalkpage.Pleasedonotremovethismessageuntilconditionstodosoaremet.(August2020)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) InChina[edit] MainlandChinesepoliticiansandeconomistshavebeendividedoverthetradewar.[312][313][314][315]AnAugust2019articleinNPRsaidthatwhilesomeinthePRCleadershiparguedforaquickresolutiontothetradewarinordertosaveChina'seconomy,otherssaidthatthecountryshouldpushbackagainsttheUnitedStatesandavoidanagreementatallcosts.[312] InJuly2018,academicXuZhangrunsaidthatthetradewarrevealedunderlyingweaknessesintheChinesepoliticalsystemandcriticizedChineseleaderXiJinpingforhis"overweeningpride"and"vanitypolitics."[314][315] InAugust2018,HongKong-basedacademicWillyLamsaidthatthetradewarhadgalvanizedallthepreviousmisgivingswhichdifferentcountriesintheWesthadtowardChinaandunderminedChineseleaderXiJinping'sauthority.[314][315]ZhangBaohui,apoliticalscienceprofessoratLingnanUniversityinHongKong,similarlysaidthatthetradewarhadbeeneffectiveinchallengingthemythofChineseinvincibility,sayingthatthetariffs"reallyhurtChinaataverybadtime,whentheeconomyisexperiencingserioustrouble."[314] EconomistShengHong,directorofthedefunctthinktankUniruleInstituteofEconomics,saidthatitwouldbegoodifChinayieldedtoAmerica'srequestforfairtrade,arguingthatthe"Chinamodel"ofstatecapitalismwasincompatiblewithitspoliciesofmarketreformsanddamagingChina'seconomy.[313]AmidsttheclosureUniruleafterHongwasaccusedofthreateningofstatesecurity,HonglikenedBeijing'sinabilitytobrookinternalcriticismto"ridinginacarwithafilthywindshield."[313] ADecember2018journalarticlepublishedbytwoChineseacademicssaidthatintheworst-casescenarioofthetradewar,Chinawouldsuffera1.1%decreaseinemploymentanda1%GDPloss,whichtheysaidwerenotnegligible,butmanageableforChina.[27]AnotherpaperpublishedinFebruary2018byChineseacademicssimilarlyconcludedthatwhereastheUnitedStateswouldexperiencelargesocialwelfarelossesasaresultofthetradewar,ChinamayloseorgainslightlydependingontheeffectoftradewarontheU.S.–Chinatradebalance.[25] InSeptember2019,LuXiang,ananalystatthestate-backedChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,expressedpessimismabouttheoutcomeofupcomingtalks,calledTrump"unpredictable",andsaid,"Wecanonlytrytofindsensiblecluesinhisnonsense."[301] DomesticreportingonthetradewariscensoredinChina.Whilenewsoutletsarepermittedtoreportontheconflict,theircoverageissubjecttorestrictions;theSouthChinaMorningPostsaidthatemployeesforChinesemediaweretoldnotto"over-report"thetradewar[316]whileanarticleinTheNewYorkTimessaidthatstatenewsoutletshadsoughttopromotetheofficialline,withtheauthoritiesrestrictingtheuseofthephrase"tradewar."[315]Socialmediapostsabouttheconflictaresubjecttocensorshipaswell.[317][318] ThetradewarisacommonsubjectonChinesesocialmedia,withonepopularInternetmemereferencingThanos,avillainfromMarvelComicsandtheMarvelCinematicUniversewhowipesouthalfofalllifeintheuniverseusingtheInfinityGauntlet,jokingthatTrumpwillsimilarlywipeouthalfofChina'sinvestors.[319][320] HongKongeconomicsprofessorLawrenceJ.LauarguesthatamajorcauseofthetradewaristhegrowingbattlebetweenChinaandtheU.S.forglobaleconomicandtechnologicaldominance.Heargues,"Itisalsoareflectionoftheriseofpopulism,isolationism,nationalismandprotectionismalmosteverywhereintheworld,includingintheUS."[321] Inmid-2021,TaoranNotes,asocialmediaaccountassociatedwiththestate-runEconomicDaily,advisedChinesedecision-makerstoremaincalmandrecommendedthatbothsidesdevelopadeeperunderstandingofeachother'sperspectives.TaoranNotessaidthatthetwocountriescountrieshadchosen"thepathofcooperationthatseekscommongroundwhilereservingdifferences".[322] People'sDaily,theofficialnewspaperoftheCentralCommitteeoftheChineseCommunistParty,hasstatedthatChinawillbeabletowithstandthetradewar,andthatTrump'spoliciesareaffectingAmericanconsumers.[323] IntheUnitedStates[edit] Congress[edit] SenateDemocraticleaderChuckSchumerpraisedPresidentTrump'shighertariffsagainstChina'sallegedtakingadvantageoftheU.S.andsaid"Democrats,Republicans,Americansofeverypoliticalideology,everyregioninthecountryshouldsupporttheseactions."OtherDemocraticsenatorswhosupportedTrump'sactionsincludeBobMenendez,SherrodBrownandRonWyden[324][325][326][327][328]BipartisansupportfromtheHouseofRepresentativesforTrump'sactionscamefromNancyPelosi.[329][330][331]BradSherman,[332]KevinBrady,[324]andTedYoho.[332]DemocraticrepresentativeTimRyan,whohasalifetime98percentratingfromtheAFL-CIO,alsosupportedtheTrumptariffssaying,"WhatChinahasbeendoingisbullshit.They'recheating,they'resubsidizingtheirproduct."[333]SenatorMarcoRubiohasalsosupportedthetariffs,whichhereferredtoasa"thefttax".[334] OtherRepublicansenatorshavegivenmoredividedstatements.MitchMcConnellsaidthat"nobodywinsatradewar"butthattherewashopethetacticswould"getusintoabetterposition,vis-à-visChina".JohnCornynsaid,"Ifthisiswhatittakestogetagooddeal,Ithinkpeoplewillhanginthere,butatsomepointwe'vegottogetitresolved.Ifthisgoesonforalongtime,everybodyrealizesit'splayingwithalivehandgrenade."[335]JoniErnstsaidinMay2019thatthe"tariffsarehurtful"tofarmers,butthatthey"dowantustofindapathforwardwithChina"andsaid,"Wehopethatwecangetadealsoon".[336] OthersenatorsfrombothpartieshavecriticizedTrumpforthetradewar,includingCharlesE.Grassley,[337]TimKaine,[338]MarkWarner,[338]ElizabethWarren,[339]andRonWyden.[23] Agricultural[edit] TheAssociatedPressreportedin2018that"DaveWarner,aspokesmanfortheNationalPorkProducersCouncil,saidporkproducershavealreadyseenthevalueoftheirpigsfallafterapreviousChinesetariff.Warnersaidpigproducerswilllikelyfeeltheeffectofthenewtariff,thoughit'snotyetclearexactlyhow."[340] IowasoybeanfarmerandpresidentoftheAmericanSoybeanAssociationJohnHeisdorffercalledtheuseoftariffsa"scorched-earthapproach",warningthatU.S.industriescouldpermanentlyloseglobalmarketshareasaresult.[340][341] ThemayorsofDavenportandSt.Gabriel,whichrepresentedtownswithaheavyrelianceonthefarmingsector,expressedtheirconcernsthatthetradewarwouldhaveontheircities.[340] InAugust2019,RogerJohnsonoftheNationalFarmersUnion—representingabout200,000familyfarmers,ranchersandfishers—statedthatthetradewarwascreatingproblemsforAmericanfarmers,specificallyhighlightingthefallinsoybeanexportsfromtheU.S.toChina.[342][better source needed]Inthesamemonth,theAmericanFarmBureauFederation—representinglargeagribusiness—saidthattheannouncementofnewtariffs"signalsmoretroubleforAmericanagriculture."[343] Business[edit] Morethan3,500AmericanbusinessessuedtheTrumpadministrationoverthetariffs.[277] InSeptember2018,abusinesscoalitionannouncedalobbyingcampaigncalled"TariffsHurttheHeartland"toprotesttheproposedtariffs;[344]thetariffsonChinesesteel,aluminium,andcertainchemicalscontributedtorisingfertilizerandagriculturalequipmentcostsintheUnitedStates.[345] InFebruary2019,asurveyreleasedbytheAmericanChamberofCommerceinChinashowedthatamajorityofmemberU.S.companiessupportedincreasingormaintainingtariffsonChinesegoods,andnearlytwiceasmanyrespondentscomparedtotheyearbeforewantedtheU.S.governmenttopushBeijinghardertocreatealevelplayingfield.[346][347]Afurther19percentofitscompaniessaidtheywereadjustingsupplychainsorseekingtosourcecomponentsandassemblyoutsideofChinaasaresultoftariffsand28%weredelayingorcancellinginvestmentdecisionsinChina.[346] Over600companiesandtradeassociations,includingmanufacturers,retailers,andtechcompanies,wrotetoTrumpinmid-2019toaskhimtoremovetariffsandendthetradewar,sayingthatincreasedtariffswouldhave"asignificant,negative,andlong-termimpactonAmericanbusinesses,farmers,families,andtheUSeconomy".[348] OnMay20,2019,theFootwearDistributorsandRetailersofAmerica,anindustrytradeassociationforfootwear,issuedanopenlettertoPresidentTrump,partofwhichread:"Onbehalfofourhundredsofmillionsoffootwearconsumersandhundredsofthousandsofemployees,weaskthatyouimmediatelystopthisaction",referringtothetradewar.[349][350] AmericansforFreeTrade,acoalitionofover160businessorganizations,wrotealettertoTrumpinAugust2019requestingthathepostponealltariffrateincreasesonChinesegoods,citingconcernsaboutcostincreasesforU.S.manufacturersandfarmers.ThecoalitionincludestheNationalRetailFederation,theConsumerTechnologyAssociation,AssociationofEquipmentManufacturers,theToyAssociationandAmericanPetroleumInstitute,amongothers.[351] InSeptember2019,MatthewShay,presidentandCEOoftheNationalRetailFederation,saidthatthetradewarhad"goneonfartoolong"andhadharmfuleffectsonAmericanbusinessesandconsumers.HeurgedtheTrumpadministrationtoendthetradewarandfindanagreementtoremoveallthetariffs.[301] HunQuach,vicepresidentofinternationaltradefortheRetailIndustryLeadersAssociationhasclaimedthatthetariffswillimpactAmericanfamilybudgetsbyraisingthepricesofeverydayitems.[340][352][353] AspokespersonfortheUS–ChinaBusinessCouncilsaidthatthetariffswere"deeplyunpopularwithAmericanconsumersandbusinesseswhobearthecost".[277] Manufacturing[edit] TheCEOsofAmericansteelmakersNucorCorp,UnitedStatesSteelCorp,ArcelorMittalSAandCommercialMetalsCohaveallsupportedTrump'ssteeltariffsagainstChina[354][355]ashastheUnitedSteelworkersUnion.[356][357][358][359][333]ScottPaul,presidentoftheassociatedAllianceforAmericanManufacturing,hasalsosupportedtariffs,[340][360]andopposedproposalstoreversetheminlightofthecoronaviruspandemic.[361]In2019,hecriticizedthestagnationoftradetalkssaying"TrumpwouldhaverippedanyDemocratforthatoutcome".[362] JamesHoffaJr.,presidentoftheInternationalBrotherhoodofTeamsters,hasbeenaproponentofU.S.tariffsagainstChina[363]ashasRichardTrumka,presidentofAFL-CIO.[333][364][365] A2019statementbytheNationalAssociationofManufacturersstatedtheiroppositiontothetradewar,callingforanewstructurefortheU.S.–ChinacommercialrelationshipthatwouldeliminateChina'sunfairtradepracticesandleveltheplayingfieldformanufacturersintheUnitedStates.[366]A2018PoliticoarticledocumentedtheclosepartnershipbetweenthepresidentofNAMJayTimmonsandPresidentTrumpandsaidthatTimmonswasfightingagainstTrump'stradewarfromwithin.[367] ThevicepresidentoftheNationalMarineManufacturersAssociationcriticizedthetariffs,sayingtheywere"hurtingAmericanmanufacturers."[344] Economistsandanalysts[edit] AccordingtoarticlesinPolitifact,mostmainstreameconomistssaidthat"consumersaretheprimaryvictimsoftariffs"[360]andmosteconomistssaidthattheycarry"morerisksthanbenefits".[368]NearlyalleconomistswhorespondedtosurveysconductedbytheAssociatedPressandReuterssaidthatTrump'stariffswoulddomoreharmthangoodtotheeconomyoftheUnitedStates,[9][10]andsomeeconomistsadvocatedforalternatemeansfortheUnitedStatestoaddressitstradedeficitwithChina.[8][11][12][13][14] NYUEconomicsProfessorLawrenceJ.Whitehassaidthatimporttariffsareequivalenttoatax,andcontributetoahighercostofliving.[360][368] EconomicanalystZacharyKarabellhasarguedthattheadministration'stariff-basedapproachwouldnotworkasitwouldnot"reversewhathasalreadybeentransferredandwillnotdomuchtoaddressthechallengeofChinatoday,whichisnolongeramanufacturingneophyte"andalsoarguedthattheassertionthatmorerigorousintellectualpropertyprotectionswould"leveltheplayingfield"wasproblematic.[369]HerecommendedinsteadthattheU.S.focusonitsrelativeadvantagesofeconomicopennessandacultureofindependence.[369] JamesAndrewLewisoftheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiessaidthatwhattheUnitedStatesneededfromChinawasacommitmenttoobservetherulesandnormsofinternationaltradeandtoextendreciprocaltreatmenttoU.S.companiesinChina.[370] InanApril2018articleinForbes,HarryG.Broadman,aformerU.S.tradenegotiator,saidthatwhileheagreedwiththeTrumpadministration'sbasicpositionthattheChinesedidnotabidebyfair,transparentandmarket-basedrulesforglobaltrade,hedisagreedwithitsmeansofunilaterallyemployingtariffsandsaidthattheadministrationshouldinsteadpursueacoalition-basedapproach.[371] InaNovember2018testimonybeforetheSenateFinanceCommittee,JenniferHillman,aprofessorofpracticeatGeorgetownUniversityLawSchool,saidthatUnitedStates"oughttobebringingabigandboldcase,basedonacoalitionofcountriesworkingtogethertotakeonChina."[372] ChadBown,aseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicssaidthatwhileitmadesenseforothercountriestogetmoreinvolvedinconfrontingChina,theproblemwasthattheydidn'tknowhowseriousTrumpwasonreformingthelarger,systemicissues.[372] MichaelWesseldescribedplanstoallowforeigncompaniesagreaterroleintheChinesetechnologyprogram"aninfluenceoperationatitsbest"andalsoquestionedwhetherchangesinrelevantChineselawswouldmeanmuchsolongasthecourtsremainedunderthecontroloftheChineseCommunistParty.[372] AMay2019articlewrittenbyHowardGleckmanoftheTaxPolicyCenterarguedthattheimpactofthetradewarwouldeliminate"mostorall"ofthebenefitsfromtheTaxCutsandJobsActforlow-andmiddle-incomehouseholds.[373][374] EconomistsatfinancialfirmMorganStanleyexpresseduncertaintyabouthowthetradewarwouldend,butwarnedinJune2019thatitcouldleadtoarecession.[375] EconomistPanosMourdoukoutasstatesthatChina'seliteswerefightingthetradewarunderthewrongassumptionthatChinahadreached"powerparity"withtheU.S.andthatalthoughaneconomicdivorcebetweenthetwocountrieswouldhavesomeconsequencesfortheUS,itwouldontheotherhandbedevastatingforChina.[376] InNovember2019,JimCramersaidthatunlessChinapurchasedaconsiderableamountofAmericangoodsasawaytoprovethevalidityoftheargumentsprofferedbythefree-tradecontingentintheTrumpadministration,theU.S.-Chinatradewarwouldcontinueonforasignificantperiodoftime.[377] AfterthefirstphaseofatradedealwasagreeduponinDecember2019,MaryE.LovelyofthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsandprofessoratSyracuseUniversitysaidtheceasefirewas"goodnews"fortheAmericaneconomywhileexpressingoptimismthatthetalkswouldhelpaddressChina's"unfair"intellectualpropertypractices.[378][379] EconomistPaulKrugmansaidinSeptember2020thatifDemocraticcandidateJoeBidenwontheU.S.presidentialelection,heshouldmaintainatoughstanceagainstChina,butfocusmoreonindustrialpolicythantradetariffs.[380] Others[edit] MinxinPei,ascholarofChinesepoliticsatCalifornia'sClaremontMcKennaCollege,arguedthatMr.Xi'sambitionforChina'srevivalasaworldpowerhadbeenrevealedashollowthroughthecontinuingtradedispute.[314] TheformerVicePresidentJoeBidensaid:"WhileTrumpispursuingadamaginganderratictradewar,withoutanyrealstrategy,Chinaispositioningitselftoleadtheworldinrenewableenergy."[381] AnAugust2019HarvardCAPS/HarrisPollfoundthat67%ofregisteredvoterswantedtheU.S.toconfrontBeijingoveritstradepoliciesdespitethefactthat74%saidAmericanconsumerswereshoulderingmostoftheburdenoftariffs.MarkPenn,theco-directoroftheHarvardCAPS/HarrisPoll,saidthepollshowedstrongsupportamongsttheAmericanpublicforTrump'stradepoliciesagainstChina,saying,"Theyrealizethatthetariffsmayhavenegativeimpactsonjobsandprices,buttheybelievethefighthereistherightone."[382] TariffsonmedicalsupplieshavebecomepoliticallycomplicatedduetotheCOVID-19pandemic.TheWallStreetJournal,citingTradeDataMonitortoshowthatChinaistheleadingsourceofmanykeymedicalsupplies,raisedconcernsthatUStariffsonimportsfromChinathreatenimportsofmedicalsuppliesintotheUnitedStates.[383] International[edit] ASeptember2018articlebyBrahmaChellaneysaidthatAmerica'stradewarwithChinashouldnotobscureabroaderpushbackagainstChina'smercantilisttrade,investment,andlendingpractices.[384] Atthe2018G20summit,thetradewarwasontheagendafordiscussion.[385] InDecember2018JorgeGuajardo,formerMexicanambassadortoChina,saidinanarticleintheWashingtonPostthat"OnethingtheChinesehavehadtoacknowledgeisthatitwasn'taTrumpissue;itwasaworldissue.Everybody'stiredofthewayChinagamesthetradingsystemandmakespromisesthatneveramounttoanything."[372] AMarch2019ReutersarticlesaidthattheEuropeanUnionsharedmanyoftheTrumpadministration'ssamecomplaintswithregardstoChina'stechnologytransferpoliciesandmarketaccessconstraintsandalsoreportedthatEuropeandiplomatsandofficialsacknowledgedsupportforTrump'sgoals,eveniftheydisagreedwithhistactics.[347] SingaporeanPrimeMinisterLeeHsienLoongsaidthatthetradewarwasnegativelyaffectingSingaporeanddescribeditas"veryworrying".HeurgedboththeU.S.andChinesegovernmentstochangetheirapproaches.[386][387] Atthe45thG7summit,UKPrimeMinisterBorisJohnsonsaid,"Wedon'tliketariffsonthewhole."[388]AnarticleinABCsaidthatU.S.allieswarnedTrumpduringthesummitabouthistradewarwithChina,butthatTrumpsaidhewasn'tfacinganypressurefromhisalliesoverthetradewar.[388]EuropeanCouncilPresidentDonaldTusksaidthetradewarriskedcausingaglobalrecession.[389] TheChileanviceministerfortrade,RodrigoYanez,toldCNBCthat"It'sveryimportantforChilethatatradedealbetweentheU.S.andChinaissignedsoon".[390] Inthewakeofthe2020GalwanValleyskirmish,IndiancommentatorsmadereferencestotheUS-ChinatradewaraspartoftheiroverallanalysisoftheeffectthattheskirmishwouldhaveonthefuturerelationsbetweenIndiaandChina.[391][392][393][394][395][396][397] Seealso[edit] Businessportal Chinaportal Politicsportal UnitedStatesportal Anti-AmericansentimentinChina Anti-ChinesesentimentintheUnitedStates ChineseespionageintheUnitedStates CIAactivitiesinChina Congressional-ExecutiveCommissiononChina Japan–SouthKoreatradedispute ProtectionismintheUnitedStates 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^Bhattacharjee,Govind(July6,2020)."TheChinaTrade".TheStatesman.TheStatesman.ThishasgivenIndiaonelifetimeopportunitytoattractinvestmentsandcompaniesawayfromChinauntoitself.HencethePrimeMinister'semphasison'BuyLocal,BeGlobal'andAtmanirbharBharat,andtoultimatelysubstituteChinaastheworld'ssupplier.Unfortunately,itisnotonlycheaplabourandimprovementintheeaseofdoingbusinessthatwillenableIndiatoclaimasubstantialshareofChina'sglobalbusiness.Wealsoneedtounderstandthatwearenottheonlyplayervyingforthepie...Ofthe56companiesthatrelocatedtheirproductionbasesfromChinaintheaftermathoftheUS-Chinatradewarof2018-19,onlythreecametoIndiaandtherestwenttoVietnam,TaiwanandThailand.Incontrast,itisonlynowthattheGovernmentisfocusingonthelong-overduefactormarketreformsincludingthelabourlawswhichhavealreadyrunintoajudicialstonewall. ^JOSHI,MANOJ."CanIndiastillavoidbecomingcollateraldamageinUS-Chinarow?".ORF.RetrievedJune17,2020. ^CHARI,SESHADRI(July10,2020)."Asarmies'retreat'atLAC,Indiamustturntooptionsithasn'tusedagainstChinasofar".ThePrint.ThePrint. Furtherreading[edit] LibraryresourcesaboutChina–UnitedStatestradewar Resourcesinyourlibrary Resourcesinotherlibraries Albuquerque,JoséLuiz,AntonioMArceloJacksonFerreiradaSilva,andJoséMedeirosdaSilva."TheChina–USTradeWar."RevistadoFórumInternacionaldeIdeias9.1(2019):11+online,aBrazilianperspective Boucher,Jean-Christophe,andCameronG.Thies."'IAmaTariffMan':ThePowerofPopulistForeignPolicyRhetoricunderPresidentTrump."JournalofPolitics81.2(2019):712–722. Chong,TerenceTaiLeung,andXiaoyangLi."UnderstandingtheChina–UStradewar:causes,economicimpact,andtheworst-casescenario."EconomicandPoliticalStudies7.2(2019):185–202.online,ahistoricalperspective Crowley,MeredithA.(ed.),TradeWar:TheClashofEconomicSystemsEndangeringGlobalProsperity(CEPRPress,2019). Fenby,Jonathan,andTreyMcArver.TheEagleandtheDragon:DonaldTrump,XiJinpingandtheFateofUS/ChinaRelations(2019) Foot,Rosemary,andAmyKing."AssessingthedeteriorationinChina–USrelations:USgovernmentalperspectivesontheeconomic-securitynexus."ChinaInternationalStrategyReview(2019):1–12.online Lau,LawrenceJ.TheChina–U.S.TradeWarandFutureEconomicRelations(HongKong:TheChineseUniversityofHongKongPress,2019)online,aHongKongperspective Qiu,LarryD.,ChaoqunZhan,andXingWei."AnanalysisoftheChina–UStradewarthroughthelensofthetradeliterature."EconomicandPoliticalStudies7.2(2019):148–168. Qiu,LarryD.,andXingWei."China–UStrade:implicationsonconflicts."ChinaEconomicJournal(2019):1-20. Externallinks[edit] WikimediaCommonshasmediarelatedtoChina–UnitedStatestradewar. 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