China threat theory originChina threat to the WestRise of China articlesA wealth of wild species: storehouse for human welfareMyers · 被引用 352 次Experimental evidence of functional group-dependent …Weißbecker · 被引用 22 次China a global threatAmsterdam Conference China threatIs China a threat or opportunityChina's peaceful rise to great power statusThe rise of China threat or opportunity"China Threat" or a "Peaceful Rise of China"? - The New York ...
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Three different logics have been constructed to substantiate the "China threat" thesis. First, ideological and cultural factors make China a threat. For neo- ... Skiptoarticle HomePage MyTimes Today'sPaper Video MostPopular TimesTopics college AllNYT College World U.S. N.Y./Region Business Technology Science Health Sports Opinion Arts Style Travel Jobs RealEstate Autos ChinaRisesCompanion|PoliticalGovernance "ChinaThreat"ora"PeacefulRiseofChina"? BYMINGXIA Skiptonextparagraph ChinaRises InsidetheNewChina Afour-parttelevisionseriesandinteractiveWebsitebyTheTimes,TheCanadianBroadcastingCorporationandtheZDFnetworkofGermany. InThisCompanion Overview:FramingtheQuestion PoliticalGovernance Education MediaandCulture BusinessandEconomy AdditionalResources AboutThisCompanion CompanionIndex "China'srise"canbeseenasaquintessentiallypoliticalprocessthroughwhichtherulingCommunistPartyhassoughttoshoreupitslegitimacyaftertheCulturalRevolutionirreversiblychangedthenation andcausedthreecrisesofideologicalbelief,faithintheCPC,andconfidenceinthefuture.AsthePartyrealizedthattheperformance-basedlegitimacywastheonlyhopeforprolongingitsrule,economicdevelopment becamethehighestpolitics.Consequentially,thesuccessofeconomicdevelopmentwouldhavetocausepoliticalimplicationstheexternalonesarecarefullymonitoredandevaluatedbyChina'sneighborsandthe onlysuperpoweroftheworldtheUnitedStates. WillChinabecomeathreattotheUnitedStates,Japan,andsurroundingcountries?ThereasonforAmericanconcernmainlyarisesfromitshegemonicstatusintheworldpoliticsandtheideologicalincompatibilityofChinawith theWesternvaluesystem.China'sstunningeconomicgrowthhasconvincedtheWestthatitisjustamatteroftimeuntilChinabecomesaworldsuperpower.ButitsideologicalorientationmakesChinaarevolutionary powerthatisthreateningbothtotheUnitedStates'statusandglobalstructure.Threedifferentlogicshavebeenconstructedtosubstantiatethe"Chinathreat"thesis.First,ideologicalandculturalfactors makeChinaathreat.Forneo-conservativesintheBushAdministration,themerefactorthatChinastillstickstocommunismmakesviewitadversely.SamuelHuntingtonhasaddedaculturalfactor:intheclashofcivilizations, the"unholyalliancebetweenIslamicandConfuciancivilizations"isthemostfundamentalthreattotheWest.Forpeopleusingthislogic,thesensibleresponsefromtheU.S.is,intheshortrun,acontainment policy,andconfrontationispossibleifneeded;inthelongrun,thepromotionofapeacefultransformationwithinChina.Second,geopoliticalandgeoeconomicfactors.Formanyrealists,evenChinahasshedoffitsideological straitjacket,asagreatpowerinsize(territory,population,andeconomy),Chinahastopursueitsowninterestandrespect.NationalismmaystilldriveChinaintoacourseofclashwiththeUnitedStates,ifthelatter refusestoaccommodateorsharetheleadershipwithChinaasarisingpower.SomescholarsfearthatdemocracycanunleashstrongnationalismandpopularnationalismcanmakeChinaevenmoreaggressivetowardtheUnited States.Third,thecollapseofChina.Opposedtotheprevioustwoperspectives,somepeopleareconcernedthatifChinasuffersaSoviet-stylesudden-deathsyndromeandspinsoutofcontrol,itcancreateanevenworse scenario.Thesheersizeofthepopulationmakesrefugeproblem,thefailedstateandthefollowedcrises(warlordism,civilwar,crime,proliferationofnuclearweapons,etc)impossiblefortheworldtodealwith.Due tothesethreedifferentconsiderations,theUnitedStatesoftenoscillatesfromdemonizationtoromaticizationofChina,fromcontainmenttoengagement.TheU.S.-Chinarelationshiphasshiftedfromconflict,toconfrontation, tocompetitionandbacktoconflict,butsorarelyfeatureswithcooperation.OneAmericanChinaspecialistcharacterizesthebilateralrelationshipas"thesweet-and-sourSino-Americanrelationship." TheJapanesehaveadifferentsetofreasonstofeelupsetbyChina'srise.AlthoughJapanhasbeenculturallyindebtedtoChinasincetheTangdynasty,somehowJapanhasdevelopedastrongOedipuscomplextowardChinanamely tocommitpatricideagainstitsculturalpatron.Inthepastcentury,ChinasufferedseveralsevereactsofaggressionatthehandsoftheJapanese.Themutualanimositybetweenthesetwocountrieshasbeenstrong.The JapanesedeepinvolvementinTaiwan,itsstubbornrefusaltoofferunequivocalapologiestotheAsianneighboringcountriesoveritsaggressions,andAmericanmilitaryalliancewithJapanallhavebeenirksometotheChinese. TheconstructionofChinesenationalismbymainlyrelyingonanti-JapanesesentimentamongtheChineseturnedJapanintoaneasytarget.Tosomedegree,theChineseleadershiphastriedtoreleasethepopularangeragainst theregimebydirectingiteithertothelocaltyrantsortotheinternationalbullies(U.S.andJapanaretwonaturalcandidates).NowJapanandChinastillhavenotdevelopedanyframeworktoresolvetheirterritorial disputesandtheirrelationshiphasreachedalowpoint.TheChineseoftensuspectthatU.S.andJapanaretheoriginatorsofavarietyof"Chinathreat"arguments. Inadditiontotheideologicalthreat,manyotherneighboringcountrieshavemorestakesinChina'snewmove.ForSoutheastAsiannations,thepresenceofasizeableandextremelyrichChineseethnicgroupandtheirincreasing dependencyuponChina'seconomyforgrowthforcedthemtobeverycarefulinhandlingtheirrelationshipwithChina.Withacontinentalsize(Chinahasalmosttwotimestheterritorialandpopulationsizesofallother AsianPacificcountriescombined),Chinaconsumesatremendousamountofforeigndirectinvestmentandpopsouthugevolumeofexports;othercountriesfeelthecompetitionfromChina.Atthismoment,nogovernmentinthe AsianPacificregionhasadoptedaclearanti-Chinapolicy;butsporadicanti-ChineseriotshaveoccurredinMalaysia,Indonesia,thePhilippines;andstrongresentmentagainsttheNortherneconomicandculturalinvasion hassurfacedinMyanmar(formerBurma),Thailand,Vietnam,andothercountries.EvenSingaporetheself-proclaimedthirdChineseterritoryinadditiontoChinaandTaiwanwasupsetbyChina'sstronghand in2004afterLeeHsienLoong,thesoon-to-be-inauguratedPrimeMinisterofSingapore,visitedTaiwan. ThecombinationofstunningeconomicgrowthandunpredictablepoliticalgovernancecausesdeepconcernsaboutChinaamongthenationsintheworld.TheChineseleadershiphasrealizedtheurgencytocalmdowntheseconcerns andtobuildasupportiveinternationalenvironmentforitsascendancy.Tomakeitsriselessathreat,theChinesegovernmenthassponsoredmanyPRevents,suchasexhibitionsinforeigncountries,promotingChineselanguage programs,andsoon.Butmostimportantly,theChinesepremierWenJiabaoputforwardthethesisof"China'speacefulrise"inhisspeechtoaHarvardUniversityaudienceinDecember2003.Underthisthesis, thereareseveralpoints:First,China'sdevelopmentdependsuponandinreturnwillcontributetotheworldpeace;second,Chinawillresorttopeacefulmeansfordevelopment;third,China'sdevelopmentwill relymoreonitsownresourcesandmarket;fourth,Chinaispreparedforalong-termprocessofhardwork,evenseveralgenerations,foreconomicprosperity.Finally,evenasChinahasachieveditseconomicdevelopment, itwillnotseekhegemonyintheworldorcomeoutasathreattoanycountry. Undertheguidingprincipleof"China'speacefulrise,"theChinesegovernmenthasconductedactivelydiplomacyatfour(atleast)differentlevels:(1)Creatingstrategicpartnershipswiththesecond-tierpowers. ChinahassignedstrategicpartnershiptreatieswiththeEU,RussiaandIndiatostrengthentheirrelationshipsaswellastobalancetheAmericanpower.(2)Promoting"goodneighborpolicy"intheAsianPacific region.ByincreasingtradewiththeAsian-PacificregionandalsoletthesecountriesenjoytradesurpluswithChina,Chinahaspositionedasanimportanttradingpartnerwiththesecountries.Besides,Chinahasentered intovariousmechanismsofregionalcooperationwiththesecountries.Duringthe1997Asianfinancialcrises,thatChinarefrainedfromdevaluingitscurrencyandhelpedstabilizetheregionaleconomybymobilizingits foreigncurrencyreservewonpositivereactionsfromthisregionandtheU.S.(3)SeekingcooperationandavoidingconfrontationwiththeU.S.TheChinesesidebasicallyhassenttoWashingtonaclearmessagethatChina isaconservativepowerandhasnointentiontoupsetthestatusquonamelytheU.S.asthesolesuperpowerintheworld.(4)NeglectingJapan.AsChinahassuccessfullymanagedrelationshipswiththesolesuperpower, thesecond-tierstrategicpartners,andneighboringcountries,ChinaisabletoaffordtoignoreJapanandoccasionallyshowsometoughness. Forthepastfiveyears,theChineseleadershiphasbeencautiousandsuccessfulinmanagingtheinternalnationalismandAmericanunilateralism,tosomedegree,thankstotheanti-terrorwar.Nowsomesignshaveindicated thatthehoneymoonbetweentheU.S.andChinaintheaftermathofSept.11attackandanti-terrorismcoalitionhasarrivedatitsend.IftheUnitedStatesshiftsitspolicytoahard-linetowardChina,thecyclicalturbulence intheSino-Americanrelationshipmaysoonresurface.ThismightjeopardizeChina'splanofapeacefulrise.Atthemicro-level,theU.S.seemstohavebeenmoreprovocativetowardChina,thelatterhasbeenmoreon defensive;butifwelookattheSino-U.S.relationshipfromthemacro-level,itseemsthatChinacantakebackinitiativeifitcanremovethethornofcommunistideologyandauthoritarianism,becausetheAmericanstend tobelievethatunderthedoctrineofdemocraticpeace,democraticcountriesdonotfightwaragainsteachother.Therefore,tocreatelong-terminternalandexternalstability,theCPChastolearnhowtoplaythecard ofdemocracy.Doesthisamounttoaskaleopardtochangeitsspots? Continueto'Education'» FURTHERREADINGEdwardFriedmanandBarrettMcCormick,WhatIfChinaDoesn'tDemocratize?(Armonk,NY:M.E.Sharpe,2000).PeterHaysGries,China'sNewNationalism(Berkeley, CA:UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2004).DavidM.Lampton,SameBed,DifferentDreams:ManagingU.S.-ChinaRelations:1989-2000(Berkeley,CA:CaliforniaUniversityPress,2001).RobertSutter, China'sRiseinAsia:PromisesandPerils(Lanham,MD:Rowman&Littlefield,2005). ThisCompanionwaswrittenby TheCollegeofStatenIsland'sModernChinaStudiesGroup,aninterdisciplinaryprograminvolvingseveraldepartments,includingBusiness,English,History,ModernLanguages,MediaCulture,PoliticalScience,Sociology, AnthropologyandSocialWork. Home World U.S. N.Y./Region Business Technology Science Health Sports Opinion Arts Style Travel Jobs RealEstate Autos BacktoTop Copyright2006 TheNewYorkTimesCompany PrivacyPolicy Search Corrections XML Help ContactUs WorkforUs SiteMap
延伸文章資訊
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