Real-estate bubble - Wikipedia

A real-estate bubble or property bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real-estate markets, and typically follow a ... Real-estatebubble FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch Typeofeconomicbubble Thisarticlehasmultipleissues.Pleasehelpimproveitordiscusstheseissuesonthetalkpage.(Learnhowandwhentoremovethesetemplatemessages) Thisarticleneedsadditionalcitationsforverification.Pleasehelpimprovethisarticlebyaddingcitationstoreliablesources.Unsourcedmaterialmaybechallengedandremoved.Findsources: "Real-estatebubble" – news ·newspapers ·books ·scholar ·JSTOR(June2013)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Someofthisarticle'slistedsourcesmaynotbereliable.Pleasehelpthisarticlebylookingforbetter,morereliablesources.Unreliablecitationsmaybechallengedordeleted.(June2013)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Thisarticleneedstobeupdated.Pleasehelpupdatethisarticletoreflectrecenteventsornewlyavailableinformation.(February2022) (Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Areal-estatebubbleorpropertybubble(orhousingbubbleforresidentialmarkets)isatypeofeconomicbubblethatoccursperiodicallyinlocalorglobalreal-estatemarkets,andtypicallyfollowalandboom.[1]Alandboomistherapidincreaseinthemarketpriceofrealpropertysuchashousinguntiltheyreachunsustainablelevelsandthendecline.Thisperiod,duringtherunuptothecrash,isalsoknownasfroth.Thequestionsofwhetherrealestatebubblescanbeidentifiedandprevented,andwhethertheyhavebroadermacroeconomicsignificance,areanswereddifferentlybyschoolsofeconomicthought,asdetailedbelow.[1][2] Bubblesinhousingmarketsaremorecriticalthanstockmarketbubbles.Historically,equitypricebustsoccuronaverageevery13years,lastfor2.5years,andresultinabout4percentlossinGDP.Housingpricebustsarelessfrequent,butlastnearlytwiceaslongandleadtooutputlossesthataretwiceaslarge(IMFWorldEconomicOutlook,2003).Arecentlaboratoryexperimentalstudy[3]alsoshowsthat,comparedtofinancialmarkets,realestatemarketsinvolvelongerboomandbustperiods.Pricesdeclineslowerbecausetherealestatemarketislessliquid. Thefinancialcrisisof2007–2008wasrelatedtotheburstingofrealestatebubblesthathadbeguninvariouscountriesduringthe2000s.[4] Contents 1Identificationandprevention 2Macroeconomicsignificance 3Housingmarketindicators 3.1Housingaffordabilitymeasures 3.2Housingdebtmeasures 3.3Housingownershipandrentmeasures 3.4Housingpriceindices 4Listofrealestatebubbles 4.1Fromendofcoldwarto2008GreatRecession 4.2From2008GreatRecessiontonow 4.2.1USrealestatebubble2012–present 4.2.2EurozonerealestatebubbleCOVIDPandemic 5Seealso 6References 7Furtherreading Identificationandprevention[edit] Thisarticleneedsadditionalcitationsforverification.Pleasehelpimprovethisarticlebyaddingcitationstoreliablesources.Unsourcedmaterialmaybechallengedandremoved.Findsources: "Real-estatebubble" – news ·newspapers ·books ·scholar ·JSTOR(June2013)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) UShousepricetrend(1998–2008)asmeasuredbytheCase–Shillerindex RatioofMelbournemedianhousepricestoAustralianannualwages,1965to2010 Aswithalltypesofeconomicbubbles,disagreementexistsoverwhetherornotarealestatebubblecanbeidentifiedorpredicted,thenperhapsprevented.Speculativebubblesarepersistent,systematicandincreasingdeviationsofactualpricesfromtheirfundamentalvalues.[5]Realestatebubblescanbedifficulttoidentifyevenastheyareoccurring,dueinparttothedifficultyofdiscerningtheintrinsicvalueofrealestate.Aswithothermediumandlongrangeeconomictrends,accuratepredictionoffuturebubbleshasprovendifficult.[1] Inrealestate,fundamentalscanbeestimatedfromrentalyields(whererealestateisthenconsideredinasimilarveintostocksandotherfinancialassets)orbasedonaregressionofactualpricesonasetofdemandand/orsupplyvariables.[6][7] AmericaneconomistRobertShilleroftheCase–ShillerHomePriceIndexofhomepricesin20metrocitiesacrosstheUnitedStatesindicatedonMay31,2011thata"HomePriceDoubleDip[is]Confirmed"[8]andBritishmagazineTheEconomist,arguethathousingmarketindicatorscanbeusedtoidentifyrealestatebubbles.Some[who?]arguefurtherthatgovernmentsandcentralbankscanandshouldtakeactiontopreventbubblesfromforming,ortodeflateexistingbubbles. Alandvaluetax(LVT)canbeintroducedtopreventspeculationonland.Realestatebubblesdirectsavingstowardsrentseekingactivitiesratherthanotherinvestments.Alandvaluetaxremovesfinancialincentivestoholdunusedlandsolelyforpriceappreciation,makingmorelandavailableforproductiveuses.[9]Atsufficientlyhighlevels,landvaluetaxwouldcauserealestatepricestofallbyremovinglandrentsthatwouldotherwisebecome'capitalized'intothepriceofrealestate.Italsoencourageslandownerstosellorrelinquishtitlestolocationstheyarenotusing,thuspreventingspeculatorsfromhoardingunusedland. Macroeconomicsignificance[edit] Thissectiondoesnotciteanysources.Pleasehelpimprovethissectionbyaddingcitationstoreliablesources.Unsourcedmaterialmaybechallengedandremoved.(May2011)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Withinmainstreameconomics,economicbubbles,andinparticularrealestatebubbles,arenotconsideredmajorconcerns.[dubious–discuss]Withinsomeschoolsofheterodoxeconomics,bycontrast,realestatebubblesareconsideredofcriticalimportanceandafundamentalcauseoffinancialcrisesandensuingeconomiccrises. Thepre-dominatingeconomicperspectiveisthatincreasesinhousingpricesresultinlittleornowealtheffect,namelyitdoesnotaffecttheconsumptionbehaviorofhouseholdsnotlookingtosell.Thehousepricebecomingcompensationforthehigherimplicitrentcostsforowning.Increasinghousepricescanhaveanegativeeffectonconsumptionthroughincreasedrentinflationandahigherpropensitytosavegivenexpectedrentincrease.[10] Insomeschoolsofheterodoxeconomics,notablyAustrianeconomicsandPost-Keynesianeconomics,realestatebubblesareseenasanexampleofcreditbubbles(pejoratively,[clarificationneeded]speculativebubbles),becausepropertyownersgenerallyuseborrowedmoneytopurchaseproperty,intheformofmortgages.Thesearethenarguedtocausefinancialandhenceeconomiccrises.Thisisfirstarguedempirically–numerousrealestatebubbleshavebeenfollowedbyeconomicslumps,anditisarguedthatthereisacause-effectrelationshipbetweenthese. ThePost-Keynesiantheoryofdebtdeflationtakesademand-sideview,arguingthatpropertyownersnotonlyfeelricherbutborrowto(i)consumeagainsttheincreasedvalueoftheirproperty–bytakingoutahomeequitylineofcredit,forinstance;or(ii)speculatebybuyingpropertywithborrowedmoneyintheexpectationthatitwillriseinvalue.Whenthebubblebursts,thevalueofthepropertydecreasesbutnotthelevelofdebt.Theburdenofrepayingordefaultingontheloandepressesaggregatedemand,itisargued,andconstitutestheproximatecauseofthesubsequenteconomicslump. Housingmarketindicators[edit] UKhousepricesbetween1975and2006,adjustedforinflation RobertShiller'splotofU.S.homeprices,population,buildingcosts,andbondyields,fromIrrationalExuberance,2ded.ShillershowsthatinflationadjustedU.S.homepricesincreased0.4%peryearfrom1890–2004,and0.7%peryearfrom1940–2004,whereasU.S.censusdatafrom1940–2004showsthattheself-assessedvalueincreased2%peryear. Inattemptingtoidentifybubblesbeforetheyburst,economistshavedevelopedanumberoffinancialratiosandeconomicindicatorsthatcanbeusedtoevaluatewhetherhomesinagivenareaarefairlyvalued.Bycomparingcurrentlevelstopreviouslevelsthathaveprovenunsustainableinthepast(i.e.ledtooratleastaccompaniedcrashes),onecanmakeaneducatedguessastowhetheragivenrealestatemarketisexperiencingabubble.Indicatorsdescribetwointerwovenaspectsofhousingbubble:avaluationcomponentandadebt(orleverage)component.Thevaluationcomponentmeasureshowexpensivehousesarerelativetowhatmostpeoplecanafford,andthedebtcomponentmeasureshowindebtedhouseholdsbecomeinbuyingthemforhomeorprofit(andalsohowmuchexposurethebanksaccumulatebylendingforthem).AbasicsummaryoftheprogressofhousingindicatorsforU.S.citiesisprovidedbyBusinessWeek.[11]Seealso:realestateeconomicsandrealestatetrends. Housingaffordabilitymeasures[edit] Thepricetoincomeratioisthebasicaffordabilitymeasureforhousinginagivenarea.Itisgenerallytheratioofmedianhousepricestomedianfamilialdisposableincomes,expressedasapercentageorasyearsofincome.Itissometimescompiledseparatelyforfirst-timebuyersandtermedattainability.[citationneeded]Thisratio,appliedtoindividuals,isabasiccomponentofmortgagelendingdecisions.[citationneeded]Accordingtoaback-of-the-envelopecalculationbyGoldmanSachs,acomparisonofmedianhomepricestomedianhouseholdincomesuggeststhatU.S.housingin2005wasovervaluedby10%."However,thisestimateisbasedonanaveragemortgagerateofabout6%,andweexpectratestorise",thefirm'seconomicsteamwroteinarecent[when?]report.[12]AccordingtoGoldman'sfigures,aone-percentage-pointriseinmortgagerateswouldreducethefairvalueofhomepricesby8%.[citationneeded] Thedeposittoincomeratioistheminimumrequireddownpaymentforatypicalmortgage[specify],expressedinmonthsoryearsofincome.Itisespeciallyimportantforfirst-timebuyerswithoutexistinghomeequity;ifthedownpaymentbecomestoohighthenthosebuyersmayfindthemselves"pricedout"ofthemarket.Forexample,asof2004[update]thisratiowasequaltooneyearofincomeintheUK.[13]AnothervariantiswhattheUnitedStates'sNationalAssociationofRealtorscallsthe"housingaffordabilityindex"initspublications.[14](ThesoundnessoftheNAR'smethodologywasquestionedbysomeanalystsasitdoesnotaccountforinflation.[15]Otheranalysts,[who?]however,considerthemeasureappropriate,becauseboththeincomeandhousingcostdataareexpressedintermsthatincludeinflationand,allthingsbeingequal,theindeximplicitlyincludesinflation[citationneeded]). Theaffordabilityindexmeasurestheratiooftheactualmonthlycostofthemortgagetotake-homeincome.ItisusedmoreintheUnitedKingdomwherenearlyallmortgagesarevariableandpeggedtobanklendingrates.Itoffersamuchmorerealisticmeasureoftheabilityofhouseholdstoaffordhousingthanthecrudepricetoincomeratio.Howeveritismoredifficulttocalculate,andhencetheprice-to-incomeratioisstillmorecommonlyusedbypundits.[who?]Inrecentyears,[when?]lendingpracticeshaverelaxed,allowinggreatermultiplesofincometobeborrowed. Themedianmultiplemeasurestheratioofthemedianhousepricetothemedianannualhouseholdincome.Thismeasurehashistoricallyhoveredaroundavalueof3.0orless,butinrecentyears[when?]hasrisendramatically,especiallyinmarketswithseverepublicpolicyconstraintsonlandanddevelopment.[16] Inflation-adjustedhomepricesinJapan(1980–2005)comparedtohomepriceappreciationintheUnitedStates,Britain,andAustralia(1995–2005) Housingdebtmeasures[edit] Thehousingdebttoincomeratioordebt-serviceratioistheratioofmortgagepaymentstodisposableincome.Whentheratiogetstoohigh,householdsbecomeincreasinglydependentonrisingpropertyvaluestoservicetheirdebt.Avariantofthisindicatormeasurestotalhomeownershipcosts,includingmortgagepayments,utilitiesandpropertytaxes,asapercentageofatypicalhousehold'smonthlypre-taxincome;forexampleseeRBCEconomics'reportsfortheCanadianmarkets.[17] Thehousingdebttoequityratio(nottobeconfusedwiththecorporatedebttoequityratio),alsocalledloantovalue,istheratioofthemortgagedebttothevalueoftheunderlyingproperty;itmeasuresfinancialleverage.Thisratioincreaseswhenthehomeownertakesasecondmortgageorhomeequityloanusingtheaccumulatedequityascollateral.Aratiogreaterthan1impliesthatowner'sequityisnegative. Housingownershipandrentmeasures[edit] Bubblescanbedeterminedwhenanincreaseinhousingpricesishigherthantheriseinrents.IntheUS,rentbetween1984and2013hasrisensteadilyatabout3%peryear,whereasbetween1997and2002housingpricesrose6%peryear.Between2011andthethirdquarterof2013,housingpricesrose5.83%andrentincreased2%.[18] Theownershipratioistheproportionofhouseholdswhoowntheirhomesasopposedtorenting.Ittendstorisesteadilywithincomes.Also,governmentsoftenenactmeasuressuchastaxcutsorsubsidizedfinancingtoencourageandfacilitatehomeownership.Ifariseinownershipisnotsupportedbyariseinincomes,itcanmeaneitherthatbuyersaretakingadvantageoflowinterestrates(whichmusteventuallyriseagainastheeconomyheatsup)orthathomeloansareawardedmoreliberally,toborrowerswithpoorcredit.Therefore,ahighownershipratiocombinedwithanincreasedrateofsubprimelendingmaysignalhigherdebtlevelsassociatedwithbubbles. Theprice-to-earningsratioorP/Eratioisthecommonmetricusedtoassesstherelativevaluationofequities.TocomputetheP/Eratioforthecaseofarentedhouse,dividethepriceofthehousebyitspotentialearningsornetincome,whichisthemarketannualrentofthehouseminusexpenses,whichincludemaintenanceandpropertytaxes.Thisformulais: HouseP/Eratio = Houseprice Rent − Expenses {\displaystyle{\mbox{HouseP/Eratio}}={\frac{\mbox{Houseprice}}{{\mbox{Rent}}-{\mbox{Expenses}}}}} Thehouseprice-to-earningsratioprovidesadirectcomparisonwithP/Eratiosutilisedtoanalyzeotherusesofthemoneytiedupinahome.Comparethisratiotothesimplerbutlessaccurateprice-rentratiobelow. Theprice-rentratioistheaveragecostofownershipdividedbythereceivedrentincome(ifbuyingtolet)ortheestimatedrent(ifbuyingtoreside): HousePrice-Rentratio = Houseprice MonthlyRent × 12 {\displaystyle{\mbox{HousePrice-Rentratio}}={\frac{\mbox{Houseprice}}{{\mbox{MonthlyRent}}\times12}}} Thelatterisoftenmeasuredusingthe"owner'sequivalentrent"numberspublishedbytheBureauofLaborStatistics.Itcanbeviewedastherealestateequivalentofstocks'price-earningsratio;inothertermsitmeasureshowmuchthebuyerispayingforeachdollarofreceivedrentincome(ordollarsavedfromrentspending).Rents,justlikecorporateandpersonalincomes,aregenerallytiedverycloselytosupplyanddemandfundamentals;onerarelyseesanunsustainable"rentbubble"(or"incomebubble"forthatmatter).[citationneeded]Thereforearapidincreaseofhomepricescombinedwithaflatrentingmarketcansignaltheonsetofabubble.TheU.S.price-rentratiowas18%higherthanitslong-runaverageasofOctober2004.[19] Thegrossrentalyield,ameasureusedintheUnitedKingdom,isthetotalyearlygrossrentdividedbythehousepriceandexpressedasapercentage: GrossRentalYield = Monthlyrent × 12 Houseprice × 100 % {\displaystyle{\mbox{GrossRentalYield}}={\frac{{\mbox{Monthlyrent}}\times12}{\mbox{Houseprice}}}\times100\%} Thisisthereciprocalofthehouseprice-rentratio.Thenetrentalyielddeductsthelandlord'sexpenses(andsometimesestimatedrentalvoids)fromthegrossrentbeforedoingtheabovecalculation;thisisthereciprocalofthehouseP/Eratio. Becauserentsarereceivedthroughouttheyearratherthanatitsend,boththegrossandnetrentalyieldscalculatedbytheabovearesomewhatlessthanthetruerentalyieldsobtainedwhentakingintoaccountthemonthlynatureofrentalpayments. Theoccupancyrate(opposite:vacancyrate)isthenumberofoccupiedhousingunitsdividedbythetotalnumberofunitsinagivenregion(incommercialrealestate,usuallyexpressedintermsofarea(i.e.insquaremetres,acres,etcetera)fordifferentgradesofbuildings).Alowoccupancyratemeansthatthemarketisinastateofoversupplybroughtaboutbyspeculativeconstructionandpurchase.Inthiscontext,supply-and-demandnumberscanbemisleading:salesdemandexceedssupply,butrentdemanddoesnot.[citationneeded] Housingpriceindices[edit] TheCase–Shillerindex1890–2016,showingahousingbubblepeakingin2006 Mainarticle:Housepriceindex Measuresofhousepricearealsousedinidentifyinghousingbubbles;theseareknownashousepriceindices(HPIs). AnotedseriesofHPIsfortheUnitedStatesaretheCase–Shillerindices,devisedbyAmericaneconomistsKarlCase,RobertJ.Shiller,andAllanWeiss.AsmeasuredbytheCase–Shillerindex,theUSexperiencedahousingbubblepeakinginthesecondquarterof2006(2006Q2). Listofrealestatebubbles[edit] Fromendofcoldwarto2008GreatRecession[edit] ThecrashoftheJapaneseassetpricebubblefrom1990onhasbeenverydamagingtotheJapaneseeconomy.[20]Thecrashin2005affectedShanghai,China'slargestcity.[21] Asof2007[update],realestatebubbleshadexistedintherecentpastorwerewidelybelievedtostillexistinmanypartsoftheworld.[22]includingArgentina,[23]NewZealand,Ireland,Spain,Lebanon,Poland,[24]andCroatia.[25]ThenU.S.FederalReserveChairmanAlanGreenspansaidinmid-2005that"ataminimum,there'salittle'froth'(intheU.S.housingmarket)…it'shardnottoseethattherearealotoflocalbubbles."[26]TheEconomistmagazine,writingatthesametime,wentfurther,saying"theworldwideriseinhousepricesisthebiggestbubbleinhistory".[27] InFrance,theeconomistJacquesFriggitpublisheseachyearastudycalled"Evolutionoftheprice,valueandnumberofpropertysalesinFrancesincethe19thcentury",[28]showingahighpriceincreasesince2001.Yet,theexistenceofarealestatebubbleinFranceisdiscussedbyeconomists.[29] Realestatebubblesareinvariablyfollowedbyseverepricedecreases(alsoknownasahousepricecrash)thatcanresultinmanyownersholdingmortgagesthatexceedthevalueoftheirhomes.[30]11.1millionresidentialproperties,or23.1%ofallU.S.homes,wereinnegativeequityatDecember31,2010.[31]Commercialpropertyvaluesremainedaround35%belowtheirmid-2007peakintheUnitedKingdom.Asaresult,bankshavebecomelesswillingtoholdlargeamountsofproperty-backeddebt,likelyakeyissueaffectingtheworldwiderecoveryintheshortterm. By2006,mostareasoftheworldwerethoughttobeinabubblestate,althoughthishypothesis,basedupontheobservationofsimilarpatternsinrealestatemarketsofawidevarietyofcountries,[32]wassubjecttocontroversy.Suchpatternsincludethoseofovervaluationand,byextension,excessiveborrowingbasedonthoseovervaluations.[33][34] TheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisisof2007–2010,alongsideitsimpactsandeffectsoneconomiesinvariousnations,hasimpliedthatthesetrendsmighthavesome[which?]commoncharacteristics.[22] Forindividualcountries,see: Balticstateshousingbubble Britishpropertybubble Bulgarianpropertybubble Canadianpropertybubble Chinesepropertybubble–2005–2011 Danishpropertybubble–2001–2006 Indianpropertybubble Irishpropertybubble–1999–2006 Japaneseassetpricebubble–1986–1991 Lebanesepropertybubble Polishpropertybubble–2002–2008 Romanianpropertybubble Spanishpropertybubble–1985–2008 UnitedStateshousingbubble–1997–2006[35] From2008GreatRecessiontonow[edit] Thissectionneedsexpansion.Youcanhelpbyaddingtoit.(February2022) Australianpropertybubble Britishpropertybubble Canadianpropertybubble NewZealandpropertybubble USrealestatebubble2012–present[edit] Thissectionneedstobeupdated.Pleasehelpupdatethisarticletoreflectrecenteventsornewlyavailableinformation.(March2020) TheWashingtonPostwriterLisaSturtevantthinksthatthehousingmarketof2013wasnotindicativeofahousingbubble."Acriticaldifferencebetweenthecurrentmarketandtheoverheatedmarketofthemiddleoflastdecadeisthenatureofthemortgagemarket.Stricterunderwritingstandardshavelimitedthepoolofpotentialhomebuyerstothosewhoaremostqualifiedandmostlikelytobeabletopayloansback.Thedemandthistimeisbasedmorecloselyonmarketfundamentals.Andthepricegrowthwe’veexperiencedrecentlyis'real.'Or'morereal.'"[36]Otherrecentresearchindicatesthatmid-levelmanagersinsecuritizedfinancedidnotexhibitawarenessofproblemsinoverallhousingmarkets.[37] EconomistDavidStockmanbelievesthatasecondhousingbubblewasstartedin2012andstillinflatingasofFebruary2013.[38]Housinginventorybegantodwindlestartinginearly2012ashedgefundinvestorsandprivateequityfirmspurchasesingle-familyhomesinhopesofrentingthemoutwhilewaitingforahousingrebound.[39]DuetothepoliciesofQE3,mortgageinterestrateshavebeenhoveringatanall-timelow,causingrealestatevaluestorise.Homepriceshaverisenunnaturallyasmuchas25%withinoneyearinmetropolitanareasliketheSanFranciscoBayAreaandLasVegas.[40] EurozonerealestatebubbleCOVIDPandemic[edit] HousepricesintheEurozoneincreaseddramaticallyduringtheCOVIDpandemic.[41] Seealso[edit] Deedinlieuofforeclosure Estate(land) Foreclosureconsultant Jeonse Realestateappraisal Realestateeconomics Realestatepricing Realestate Realestatebusiness References[edit] ^abcMayer,Christopher(September2011)."HousingBubbles:ASurvey".AnnualReviewofEconomics.3(1):559–577.doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.012809.103822.ISSN 1941-1383. ^Staff,Investopedia."WhatIsaHousingBubble?".Investopedia.RetrievedApril5,2021. ^Ikromov,NuriddingandAbdullahYavas,2012a,"AssetCharacteristicsandBoomandBustPeriods:AnExperimentalStudy".RealEstateEconomics.40,508–535. ^Klein,Ezra(May28,2009)."BillClintonandtheHousingBubble".WashingtonPost.RetrievedSeptember22,2011. ^Brooks,Chris;Katsaris,Apostolos(2005)."TradingrulesfromforecastingthecollapseofspeculativebubblesfortheS&P500compositeindex"(PDF).TheJournalofBusiness.78(5):2003–2036.doi:10.1086/431450.ISSN 0740-9168. ^ Nneji,Ogonna;Brooks,Chris;Ward,Charles(2013)."IntrinsicandrationalspeculativebubblesintheU.S.housingmarket1960-2011".JournalofRealEstateResearch.35(2):121–151.doi:10.1080/10835547.2013.12091360.ISSN 0896-5803. ^ Nneji,Ogonna;Brooks,Chris;Ward,CharlesW.R.(2013)."Housepricedynamicsandtheirreactiontomacroeconomicchanges"(PDF).EconomicModelling.32:172–178.doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.007.ISSN 0264-9993. ^Christie,Les(May31,2011)."Homeprices:'Double-dip'confirmed".CNNMoney. ^Wetzel,Dave(September20,2004)."Thecasefortaxingland".NewStatesman.ArchivedfromtheoriginalonAugust14,2007.RetrievedJune13,2008. ^Nocera,Andrea(June2017)."HousepricesandmonetarypolicintheEuroarea:astructuralVARanalysis"(PDF).EuropeanCentralBank-WorkingPapers(2073). ^"InteractiveTable:HowBubblyIsYourHousingMarket?".BusinessWeek.April11,2005.ArchivedfromtheoriginalonNovember20,2007.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^seek.estate ^"Home-SecurityNationalMortgageCompany".snmcblog.com.RetrievedJanuary6,2017. ^"AffordableHousingRealEstateResource:HousingAffordabilityIndex".NationalAssociationofRealtors.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^seek.estate ^"10thAnnualDemographiaInternationalHousingAffordabilitySurvey:2014"(PDF).RetrievedNovember11,2014. ^June2,2005report ^Wallison,PeterJ(January5,2014),"TheBubbleisBack",TheNewYorkTimes,NewYork,p. A15,retrievedApril14,2014 ^Krainer,John;Wei,Chishen(October1,2004)."HousePricesandFundamentalValue".FederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco.{{citejournal}}:Citejournalrequires|journal=(help) ^Fackler,Martin(December25,2005)."TakeItFromJapan:BubblesHurt".NewYorkTimes.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^Lee,Don(January8,2006)."AHomeBoomBusts".LosAngelesTimes.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^abPutland,GavinR.(June1,2009)."Fromthesubprimetotheterrigenous:Recessionbeginsathome".LandValuesResearchGroup.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^"Thegoodtimesarehereagain".GlobalPropertyGuide.February28,2008.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^"TheendofPoland'shousepriceboom".GlobalPropertyGuide.August25,2008.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^"RealestatepricesinAdriaticCoastup,Zagrebdown".GlobalPropertyGuide.August19,2008.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^Leonhardt,David(December25,2005)."2005:InaWord:Frothy".NewYorkTimes.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^"Theglobalhousingboom".TheEconomist.June16,2005. ^ "TheFrenchhousingmarketanditsenvironmentsince1800".ConseilGénéraldel'EnvironnementetduDéveloppementDurable.RetrievedDecember21,2016. ^"Bulleimmobilière :dequoiparle-t-onetquefaut-ilcraindre ?".Ideal-investisseur.RetrievedDecember21,2016. ^Kellington,Tom(May25,2021)."Whathappenswhenrealestatebubblespop?".TheBusinessDaily.RetrievedMay26,2021. ^Philyaw,Jason(March8,2011)."Underwatermortgagesbackabove11millionin4Q".CoreLogic.RetrievedApril14,2014. ^"HousePricesWorldwide".GlobalPropertyGuide.RetrievedJune23,2009. ^"Headlinesinthefinancialpressrangedfrom“PropertyslowdownfuelsChinafears”to“Chinapropertycorrectionwouldbepainful,butsalutary”(FinancialTimes,2014e,p.3).Housingdemandhasbeenincreasingduetohigherincomes,rapidurbanizationandChina’sruralurbanmigrationstrategy" ^"TheupsanddownsoftherealestatemarketanditsrelationswiththerestoftheeconomyinChina".RealEstate,ConstructionandEconomicDevelopmentinEmergingMarketEconomies.2015.pp. 108–124.doi:10.4324/9781315762289-13.ISBN 9781315762289. ^Bajaj,Vikas;Leonhardt,David(December18,2008)."TaxBreakMayHaveHelpedCauseHousingBubble".NewYorkTimes.RetrievedMay6,2012. ^Sturtevant,LisaA.(March26,2013)."IstheWashington,D.C.-areahousingmarketbubblingagain?".TheWashingtonPost. ^WallStreetandtheHousingBubble,PrincetonUniversity,September2013 ^"ThisisHousingBubble2.0:DavidStockman". ^StreetAuthority(January15,2013)."WhyBlackstoneBought16,000Homes".SeekingAlpha.com.RetrievedJanuary6,2017. ^"ComebackforCaliforniaHousingPrices".NBCLosAngeles.com.RetrievedJanuary6,2017. ^"TheeuroareahousingmarketduringtheCOVID-19pandemic". Furtherreading[edit] JohnCalverley(2004),Bubblesandhowtosurvivethem,N.Brealey.ISBN 1-85788-348-9 RobertJ.Shiller(2005).IrrationalExuberance,2ded.PrincetonUniversityPress.ISBN 0-691-12335-7. JohnR.Talbott(2003).TheComingCrashintheHousingMarket,NewYork:McGraw-Hill,Inc.ISBN 0-07-142220-X. AndrewTobias(2005).TheOnlyInvestmentGuideYou'llEverNeed(updateded.),HarcourtBraceandCompany.ISBN 0-15-602963-4. EricTyson(2003).PersonalFinanceforDummies,4thed.,FosterCity,CA:IDGBooks.ISBN 0-7645-2590-5. BurtonG.Malkiel(2003).TheRandomWalkGuidetoInvesting:TenRulesforFinancialSuccess,NewYork:W.W.NortonandCompany,Inc.ISBN 0-393-05854-9. ElizabethWarrenandAmeliaWarrenTyagi(2003).TheTwo-IncomeTrap:WhyMiddle-ClassMothersandFathersAreGoingBroke,NewYork:BasicBooks.ISBN 0-465-09082-6. vteFinancialbubbles Bullmarket Commoditybooms Creditcycle Diamondrush Goldrush Irrationalexuberance Oilboom Realestatebubble Stockmarketbubble 1000–1760 Tulipmania(1634–1637) Mississippibubble(1684–1720) BrazilianGoldRush(c.1690–1760) SouthSeabubble(1711–1720) BengalBubbleof1769(1757–1760) 1760–1840 BengalBubbleof1769(1760–1769) BrazilianGoldRush(1760–1840) CanalMania(c.1790–c.1810) CarolinaGoldRush(1802–1825) 1810sAlabamarealestatebubble GeorgiaGoldRush(1828–c.1840) 1830sChicagorealestatebubble Chileansilverrush(1830–1840) 1840–1870 Chileansilverrush(1840–1850) RailwayMania(c.1840–c.1850) BrazilianGoldRush(1840–1870) CaliforniaGoldRush(1848–1855) QueenCharlottesGoldRush(1851) Victoriangoldrush(1851–c.1870) NewSouthWalesgoldrush(1851–1880) Australiangoldrushes(1851–1914) FraserCanyonGoldRush(1858) Pike'sPeakGoldRush(1858–1861) RockCreekGoldRush(1859) Pennsylvaniaoilrush(1859–1891) SimilkameenGoldRush(1860) StikineGoldRush(1861) ColoradoRiverminingboom(1861–1864) OtagoGoldRush(1861–1864) CaribooGoldRush(1861–1867) FirstNovaScotiaGoldRush(1861–1874) WildHorseCreekGoldRush(1864–1865) LeechtownGoldRush(1864–1865) WestCoastGoldRush(1864–1867) BigBendGoldRush(c.1865) VermilionLakeGoldRush(1865–1867) KildonanGoldRush(1869) OminecaGoldRush(1869) 1870–1914 1870sLaplandgoldrush CoromandelGoldRushes(c.1870–c.1890) CassiarGoldRush(c.1870–c.1890) BrazilianGoldRush(1870–c.1900) BlackHillsGoldRush(1874–1880) ColoradoSilverBoom(1879–1893) WesternAustraliangoldrushes(c.1880–c.1900) Indianagasboom(c.1880–1903) Ohiooilrush(c.1880–c.1930) TierradelFuegogoldrush(1883–1906) CayooshGoldRush(1884) WitwatersrandGoldRush(1886) Encilhamento(1886–1890) CrippleCreekGoldRush(c.1890–c.1910) KlondikeGoldRush(1896–1899) SecondNovaScotiaGoldRush(1896–1903) KobukRiverStampede(1897–1899) MountBakerGoldRush(1897–c.1925) NomeGoldRush(1899–1909) FairbanksGoldRush(c.1900–1918) Texasoilboom(1901–1918) Cobaltsilverrush(1903–1918) PorcupineGoldRush(1909–1918) 1918–1939 1920sFloridalandboom(c.1920–1925) FairbanksGoldRush(1918–c.1930) Texasoilboom(1918–1945) Cobaltsilverrush(1918–c.1930) PorcupineGoldRush(1918–1945) 1930sKakamegagoldrush ThirdNovaScotiaGoldRush(1932–1942) 1945–1973 Texasoilboom(1945–c.1950) PorcupineGoldRush(1945–c.1960) Poseidonbubble(1969–1970) 1973–1982 Mexicanoilboom(1977–1981) SilverThursday(1980) NewZealandpropertybubble(c.1980–1982) 1982–2007 1980soilglut NewZealandpropertybubble(1982–) Spanishpropertybubble(1985–2008) Japaneseassetpricebubble(1986–1990) Dot-combubble(1995–2000) Balticstateshousingbubble(2000–2006) Irishpropertybubble(c.2000–2007) 2000scommoditiesboom(2000–2008) 2000sDanishpropertybubble(2001–2006) Indianpropertybubble(2001–2007) UnitedStateshousingbubble(2002–2006) Romanianpropertybubble(2002–2007) Polishpropertybubble(2002–2008) Canadianpropertybubble(2002–) Chinesepropertybubble(2005–11) Lebanesehousingbubble(2005–2008) Bulgarianpropertybubble(2006–2008) NorthDakotaoilboom(2006–2008) Chinesestockbubbleof2007 Uraniumbubbleof2007 2007–present NorthDakotaoilboom(2008–2012) 2000scommoditiesboom(2008–2014) Lebanesehousingbubble(2008–) Corporatedebtbubble(2008–) Australianpropertybubble(2010–) Cryptocurrencybubble(2011–) Everythingbubble(2020–) AIwinter Carbonbubble Chaoticbubble TheGreenBubble Socialmediastockbubble Unicornbubble U.S.highereducationbubble vteRealestate Property Tertiarysectoroftheeconomy Bylocation Bangladesh China Italy Kenya Pakistan Panama PuertoRico Russia UnitedKingdom Types Commercialproperty Commercialbuilding CorporateRealEstate Extraterrestrialrealestate Internationalrealestate Leaseadministration Nicherealestate Gardenrealestate Healthcarerealestate Vacationproperty Arableland Golfproperty Luxuryrealestate Off-planproperty Privateequityrealestate Realestateowned Residentialproperty Sectors Propertymanagement Realestatedevelopment Realestateinvesting Realestateflipping Relocation Lawandregulation Adversepossession Chainoftitle Closing Concurrentestate Conditionalsale Conveyancing Deed Eminentdomain Encumbrance Foreclosure Landlaw Landregistration Leaseholdestate Lease Propertyabstract Realestatetransaction Realestatecontract Realproperty Rentregulation Severance Torrenstitle Zoning Economics,financingandvaluation Asset-basedlending Capitalizationrate Effectivegrossincome Grossrentmultiplier Hardmoneyloan Highestandbestuse Homeequityloan Investmentratingforrealestate Mortgageinsurance Mortgageloan Realestatederivative Realestateeconomics Realestatebubble Realestatevaluation Remortgage Rentalvalue Parties Appraiser Buyeragent Buyerbroker CharteredSurveyor Exclusivebuyeragent Landbanking Landlord Movingcompany Propertymanager Realestatebroker Realestateinvestmentclub Realestateinvestmenttrust Realpropertyadministrator Tenant Other Companies Eviction Gentrification Graduaterealestateeducation Greenbelt Indices Industrytradegroups Landbanking People Propertycycle Realestatetrends Undergraduaterealestateprograms Urbandecay Urbanplanning Listofhousingmarketsbyrealestateprices  Category  Commons  Listoftopics Retrievedfrom"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Real-estate_bubble&oldid=1086010325" Categories:EconomicinequalityRealestatebubblesHiddencategories:CS1errors:missingperiodicalArticleswithshortdescriptionShortdescriptionmatchesWikidataUsemdydatesfromAugust2021ArticlesneedingadditionalreferencesfromJune2013AllarticlesneedingadditionalreferencesArticleslackingreliablereferencesfromJune2013AllarticleslackingreliablereferencesWikipediaarticlesinneedofupdatingfromFebruary2022AllWikipediaarticlesinneedofupdatingArticleswithmultiplemaintenanceissuesAllarticleswithspecificallymarkedweasel-wordedphrasesArticleswithspecificallymarkedweasel-wordedphrasesfromJune2013ArticlesneedingadditionalreferencesfromMay2011AllaccuracydisputesArticleswithdisputedstatementsfromDecember2010WikipediaarticlesneedingclarificationfromJune2013AllarticleswithunsourcedstatementsArticleswithunsourcedstatementsfromMay2011AllarticleswithvagueorambiguoustimeVagueorambiguoustimefromJanuary2017ArticlesneedingmoredetailedreferencesArticlescontainingpotentiallydatedstatementsfrom2004AllarticlescontainingpotentiallydatedstatementsArticleswithspecificallymarkedweasel-wordedphrasesfromJanuary2017ArticleswithunsourcedstatementsfromFebruary2007ArticleswithunsourcedstatementsfromJanuary2017Articlescontainingpotentiallydatedstatementsfrom2007Articleswithspecificallymarkedweasel-wordedphrasesfromJuly2013ArticlestobeexpandedfromFebruary2022AllarticlestobeexpandedArticlesusingsmallmessageboxesWikipediaarticlesinneedofupdatingfromMarch2020 Navigationmenu Personaltools NotloggedinTalkContributionsCreateaccountLogin Namespaces ArticleTalk English Views ReadEditViewhistory More Search Navigation MainpageContentsCurrenteventsRandomarticleAboutWikipediaContactusDonate Contribute HelpLearntoeditCommunityportalRecentchangesUploadfile Tools WhatlinkshereRelatedchangesUploadfileSpecialpagesPermanentlinkPageinformationCitethispageWikidataitem Print/export DownloadasPDFPrintableversion Languages العربيةAragonésDanskDeutschEestiEspañolEsperantoEuskaraفارسیFrançais한국어ItalianoעבריתLietuviųNederlandsРусскийSuomiSvenskaVènetoTiếngViệt中文 Editlinks